371
FXUS64 KLUB 212318
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
618 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 616 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
- THERE ARE DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEK, AND
THE CHANCES GENERALLY INCREASE WITH WESTWARD EXTENT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, SPORADIC SEVERE WIND GUSTS, AND HAIL AS LARGE AS
QUARTERS ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS TODAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK, FOLLOWED BY
A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FA AT
NOON/17Z, WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS ALSO VARIED FROM
LOW 80S TO LOW 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT CURRENTLY SHOWS UP BETTER IN SFC OBS
AND RADAR IMAGERY THAN IT DOES SATELLITE IMAGERY, BUT A BIT NORTH
OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE A STRATUS LAYER IS
EVIDENT.
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
CAPROCK (MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG), AND THE FRONT INTERACTING
WITH THIS AIRMASS SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED STORMS BY MID-
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST TODAY IS THE
SOUTHWESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. A SLOWER PROGRESSION
TRANSLATES TO INCREASED STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING, WHILE
A FASTER PROGRESSION WOULD SHIFT THE GREATEST PRECIP COVERAGE
SOUTH OF OUR FA. WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING A FASTER PROGRESSION,
PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS SOUTHWEST OF LUBBOCK (40-50%, COMPARED TO
20-40% ACROSS THE REST OF THE CAPROCK). PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
GREATEST ACROSS OUR AREA BETWEEN 2-8 PM, WITH DIMINISHING COVERAGE
INTO THE LATE EVENING. IN TERMS OF STORM HAZARDS, PRECIPITABLE
WATER (PWAT) VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.3", WHICH IS ABOVE
NORMAL (ABOUT 80TH-85TH PERCENTILE), AND COMBINED WITH AROUND
1000 J/KG OF DCAPE WILL SUPPORT SPORADIC SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A RELATIVELY STRAIGHT,
ELONGATED APPEARANCE, WHICH COULD ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL
LARGER THAN QUARTERS. THIS THINKING IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST SPC
DAY 1 OUTLOOK, WHICH HAS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AND WESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR BOTH WIND AND HAIL.
THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING,
AS THE FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ALSO SUGGEST SLOW STORM MOTIONS (LESS
THAN 10 KTS). HREF MEMBERS DEPICT ISOLATED POCKETS OF 2-3" OF RAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE PWAT
VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
ON TUES, THE UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST, BECOMING CENTERED
OVER EAST TX, WHILE THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER NV.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL PWATS IN PLACE
LOCALLY, WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES WILL BE MORE NOTABLE ACROSS NM
WHERE VALUES PWAT VALUES ARE CURRENTLY LESS THAN 1" (AND FORECAST
TO APPROACH 1.25" ON TUES). WHILE A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
SET TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO NM TOMORROW, FORCING ACROSS
OUR FA LOOKS LESS INSPIRING, AND THIS IS REFLECTED BY THE LATEST
CAMS WHICH DEPICT ONLY ISOLATED PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY TUES. AS SUCH, LOWERED THE POPS RATHER
AGGRESSIVELY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUES TO JUST A 20-40% CHANCE
IN MOST LOCATIONS (HIGHEST ON THE CAPROCK). EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY, AND COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS NEAR 80 ON THE
CAPROCK, MID/UPPER 80S OFF THE CAPROCK).
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER NM WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST, WITH ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED
WAVES TRAVERSING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME TO OUR WEST/NORTH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP CHANCES SPREADING EASTWARD COMPARED TO
TUES, BUT WILL STILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE NW FA COMPARED TO THE
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. FOR THE WED AM - SAT AM PERIOD, NBM
MEMBERS STILL DEPICT A MEANINGFUL CHANCE (60%) OF 2" OF RAIN IN
THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE (DECREASING TO 20-30% CHANCE OF 2" ALONG
I-27). FURTHER EAST, THE RAINFALL PROSPECTS ARE MUCH LESS
OPTIMISTIC, WITH JUST A 50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.25" OF RAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS (BETWEEN WED AM - SAT AM). WHILE
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, OVERALL THE THREAT
APPEARS LOW OWING TO WEAK WIND SHEAR AND LOWER CLOUD BASES
REDUCING THE DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPS VARYING FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S ON
THE CAPROCK TO NEAR 90 IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE FAVORS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING BACK WEST OVER THE REGION, WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
AROUND 588-590 DAM. WHILE NOT AS ANOMALOUS AS SOME OF THE OTHER
RECENT UPPER RIDGES WE'VE EXPERIENCED, THIS WILL STILL SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S/LOW 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID-90S OFF THE CAPROCK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
VCSH WILL CONTINUE NEAR KLBB AND KPVW THROUGH SUNSET, DRYING OUT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
FOR A TAF MENTION, AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
NEAR ANY TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AT ALL TERMINALS AS LOW-LEVEL STRATUS CREEPS IN.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...12
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