108
FXUS64 KLUB 220523
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1223 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1217 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL, STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS, AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 90S,
WARMING BACK UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
OTHER THAN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING
ACROSS HOCKLEY COUNTY AS OF 8 PM CDT, MOST PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO
AN END FOR MUCH OF THE CAPROCK REGIONS AS THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME
QUITE STABLE THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE FROPA NOW POSITIONED SOUTH OF
THE FA. AS A RESULT, THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY QUIET, WITH MOST HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTING A
DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DESPITE THIS, THE WEAK NOCTURNAL LLJ IS
EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AMID ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE, AND LINGERING
OUTFLOWS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE CAPROCK. THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LOW SHOULD A STORM DEVELOP, WITH MAIN
THREATS BEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS UP TO 50
MPH.
SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING, TUESDAY WILL FEATURE THE UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTING TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES
TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD. AS A RESULT, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL, DRAWING SUBTROPICAL/MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO RESIDE WEST OF THE TX/NM
STATE LINE GIVEN THE MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW.HOWEVER, MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALSO AID IN
MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF AT THE LOWER LEVELS. IN TURN, PWAT
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, NEARING 1.5" ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL AID IN LOW-LEVEL STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING, LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE LONGEVITY OF THE CLOUD DECK, HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECASTED.
WHICH ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS. AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK PERTURBATION
ATTEMPTS TO TRACK INTO THE REGION WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
GIVEN THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW, FORCING APPEARS TO BE BETTER TO
THE WEST (SIMILAR TO THE MOISTURE). DESPITE THIS, AREAS OF
CONVERGENCE MAY STILL BE PRESENT VIA LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES,
WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ALSO IN PLACE. GIVEN THIS, WE WILL
MAINTAIN NBM MENTIONABLE POPS, THOUGH WILL LOWER THEM FROM LIKELY
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE
UPPER HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE ETX REGION AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE FA WILL FIND ITSELF
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN
BENEFICIAL SUBTROPICAL/MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION.
AS A RESULT, PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL STANDARDS, RANGING FROM 1.25" TO AROUND 1.75"
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AS DAILY PERTURBATIONS RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, WE COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS A SECONDARY, MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. DESI LREF PROBABILITIES DEPICT
A 70 TO 90% CHANCE FOR AREAS ACROSS THE CAPROCK RECEIVING AT
LEAST A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION, WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES
AROUND 30 TO 60% FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, NBM PROBABILITIES REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE
DESI PROBS, WITH HIGHER END AMOUNTS UP TO 3" POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LOW, THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICTING LONG-SKINNY CAPE PROFILES WITH A WELL SATURATED COLUMN
OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT STRONGER STORM CORES COULD POSE A RISK
OF PRECIPITATION LOADING, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
AND POTENTIALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AT TIMES.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH THE EXTENDED, WE WILL SEE THE
FIRST TASTE OF FALL ACROSS THE CAPROCK REGIONS, THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ACTUALLY BE NEAR NORMAL. WHICH IS HARD TO BELIEVE CONSIDERING
HOW HOT IT HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 90S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH WE COULD
SEE COOLER HIGHS CONSIDERING THE EXPECTATION OF LINGERING CLOUD
COVER MOST AFTERNOONS GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. HEADED
INTO THE WEEKEND, WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A WARMING TREND OCCUR AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, THERE IS
INDICATION FROM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COOL
DOWN BY NEXT TUESDAY AS OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS AND
ATTEMPTS TO SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
BEFORE MFVR TO IFR CIGS EXPAND OVER THE REGION JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
IS NEAR KLBB AND KPVW AND POINTS WEST, WITH LESSER CHANCES FARTHER
EAST. VFR IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AT THE EARLIEST. SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT ANY
POINT, BUT COVERAGE IS TOO ISOLATED FOR TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...30
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