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FXUS64 KLUB 222329
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
629 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 627 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.
- WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EVERYDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- SLIGHT COOL DOWN THE REST OF THE WEEK BEFORE A SLIGHT WARM UP
OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGING SITTING ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL CONUS WITH TWO UPPER TROUGHS ON EACH SIDE, ONE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND ANOTHER PARKED OVER NEVADA. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NEVADA GETS ABSORBED
INTO NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. AS THAT UPPER
TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD, A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE LACK OF UPPER FORCING BELOW THE
RIDGING, THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS MORNING. THESE
STORMS HAVE REMAINED SUB-SEVERE, ONLY PRODUCING MODERATE RAINFALL.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THESE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE.
AFTER THESE STORMS DISSIPATE, CAMS INDICATE WE WILL SEE A SHORT LULL
IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TO THE STORMS THIS MORNING,
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SEVERE, HOWEVER
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. IF A STORM IS ABLE TO PARK, LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE
POSSIBLE, HOWEVER THE MAJOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NM.
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
IS ENHANCED WHEN THE NOCTURNAL LLJ KICKS IN. TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND THE PROGRESSION OVERNIGHT IS
UNCERTAIN WITH CAMS NOT HANDLING THE SET UP WELL, THEREFORE KEPT THE
NBM WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE, LACK OF FORCING COULD KEEP
MUCH OF THE REGION DRY THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
REGION SITTING BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
TO THE WEST, SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. NOT MUCH IN TERMS OF UPPER FORCING, HOWEVER WE
COULD SEE A VERY SIMILAR SET UP AS THIS MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS. A PASSING UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PROLONG THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, HOWEVER MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NM AND JUST INSIDE THE NM/TX BORDER. ALONG
WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING, LOW CLOUDS HAVE FILLED
IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW CLOUD DECK WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHER ROLLING
PLAINS. THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING
VERY SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CAPROCK TO UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S OFF THE CAPROCK. HOWEVER,
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO BURN OFF, I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF TEMPERATURES DID NOT REACH THE LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND "COOLER" TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK,
OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER SYSTEMS. HOWEVER,
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY GET
ABSORBED INTO NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A SECONDARY
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MULTIPLE PASSING
SHORTWAVES AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO PUMP IN OVER THE
REGION, WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 90S
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND, WE WILL SEE AN UPPER
PATTERN CHANGE AND A SLIGHT WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES. DAILY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, HOWEVER ARE MUCH LESS
COMPARED TO THIS WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGING THAT WAS TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SLIGHTLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EXPAND BACK WEST ACROSS
MUCH OF TEXAS AND MEXICO. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FILL
INTO THE REGION AROUND THE UPPER RIDGING, HOWEVER FLOW ALOFT WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. IN GENERAL, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NM BEFORE EXPANDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION.
THAT IS NOT THE CASE WITH CURRENT MODELS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER
THE WEEKEND ARE MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS. HOWEVER, IF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOES FILL IN ALOFT, I WOULD NOT RULE OUT HIGHER
TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS FROM NM. WITH THE UPPER RIDGING JUST CLIPPING
THE FORECAST AREA, HEIGHT AND THICKNESS INCREASES WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES UP TO THE 90S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
A BROKEN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WAS SOUTH OF KLBB, SLOWING LIFTING
NORTH. LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR NORTH THESE STORMS REACH, SO WENT
WITH A PROB30 FOR -TSRA AT KLBB BETWEEN 01-05Z. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL MVFR CEILINGS MAY
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO GO BROKEN
MVFR WITH THIS UPDATE. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...24
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