709
FXUS64 KLUB 231117
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
617 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 614 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL, STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS, AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 90S,
WARMING BACK UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK REGIONS LATE
THIS EVENING, WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER DAYBREAK. ALTHOUGH THE
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW, WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER WIND
GUSTS WITH STRONGER STORM CORES THAT DEVELOP. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING ACROSS POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, WE
EXPECT LOW-STRATUS TO FILL IN ACROSS THE CAPROCK REGIONS AND LINGER
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, A FEW LOCATIONS
COULD SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WHAT THE CURRENT NBM
TEMPERATURES PORTRAY. WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
CAPROCK WHILE TEMPERATURES OFF THE CAPROCK RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES, A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP IS
EXPECTED AS WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON, AS A DISTURBANCE
WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN NM. GIVEN THE FLOW
WILL BE MORE ORIENTED OUT OF THE SOUTH RATHER THAN SOUTHWEST, THIS
SHOULD LIMIT STORMS FROM TRACKING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA,
WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAINING ALONG THE TX/NM
STATE LINE. HOWEVER, HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SURFACE TROUGH
SETTING UP OFF THE CAPROCK, WHICH IN ADDITION TO LINGERING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE GIVEN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PWATS ACROSS THE REGION AND CONTINUED MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, WPC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STATIONARY FRONT ORIENTED ACROSS
THE FA, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO RETREAT NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY COULD ALSO PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF
CONVERGENCE AND HELP MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCE, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD. AS A
RESULT, WILL MAINTAIN NBM WIDESPREAD MENTIONABLE POPS, BUT LIMIT
THEM FROM DEFINTE-LIKELY(~55% TO 85%)TO CHANCE-SLIGHT(~20% TO 54%)
CHANCE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHILE A
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTHWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NM. AS A RESULT, THE FA WILL REMAIN POSITIONED WITHIN A FAVORABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT, BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WAVES AND AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS SET UP WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, WITH PWATS
REMAINING ELEVATED AND WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL STANDARDS. GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 1.5" ACROSS THE CAPROCK AND UP TO 1.75" OFF THE CAPROCK
THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH SEVERAL SMALLER PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE FLOW, DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS A MORE
ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE TRACKS NEAR THE REGION. AN INTENSIFYING LLJ
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME SHOULD HELP ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
CONVERGENCE, WHILE MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND THE 315K SURFACE
HELP TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN, THOUGH
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN
STRONGER STORM CORES. AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS
ARE ABLE TO GROW UPSCALE OVERNIGHT, WE COULD SEE A SMALL RISK FOR
ELEVATED HAILERS. OVERALL THE SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LIMITED,
THOUGH LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE WITH THE EXPECTATION
OF SLOW STORM MOTIONS ALONG WITH TRAINING STORMS.
INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AS RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
DEEPER MOISTURE TO SLOWLY RETREAT, WITH PWATS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK
ABOVE SEASONAL STANDARDS, LEADING TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER
PATTERN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THOUGH DRIER, WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WITH ANY LINGERING MOISTURE AND PASSING
DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW. ATTENTION THEN TURN TOWARDS NEXT WEEK,
AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SHOW INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS.
THIS COULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER,
ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS FAIRLY LARGE AT THIS TIME, WITH AT LEAST
HALF THE MEMBERS MAINTAINING HIGHS IN THE 90S NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE,
CONFIDENCE IN THE MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF ANY POTENTIAL COOLDOWN
REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS EXISTS THIS MORNING PRIMARILY AT KPVW
AND KLBB, BUT CURRENTLY VFR APPEARS LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING,
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND A FEW TSRA EXPECTED THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL OTHERWISE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...30
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