773
FXUS64 KLUB 010323
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1023 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1018 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
- COOLER THURSDAY AND MUCH COOLER FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
- GRADUALLY WARMING, BUT GENERALLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
THE SYSTEM THAT HAS CAUSED ALL OF THE RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER IS
FINALLY DEPARTING THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. A
WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, RANGING FROM NEAR 70
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE TO THE MID 80S OFF THE CAPROCK.
LATEST MODELS, ESPECIALLY NAM ARE MORE BULLISH WITH REGARDS TO
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TIMING AND MUCH MORE COOL, STABLE
AIRMASS, THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OF A CONCERN.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME
TIME WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S ON THE CAPROCK
AND LOW 70S OFF THE CAPROCK. BREEZY NW WINDS IN THE MORNING MAY GUST
TO 30 MPH. A DISTURBANCE WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS
WEEKEND, HOWEVER LONG RANGE MODELS LOOK TO KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY STARTING SATURDAY INTO MID-NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED TS NEAR KLBB AND KPVW AT THE START OF THIS
PERIOD WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD, WITH A PERIOD OF CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT KCDS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. STRONG/ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS AND BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED NEAR
CONVECTION. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
THAT MVFR CIGS ALSO DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING (MAINLY AT KLBB/KPVW),
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION AT
THIS TIME.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...30
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