736
FXUS64 KLUB 031736
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1236 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
- CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
BREAKS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE STRATUS, BUT MUCH CLOUD COVER
REMAINS ACROSS THE FA. THESE BREAKS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME SURFACE
HEATING, BUT MOST AREAS ARE STILL 10 DEGREES AWAY FROM FORECAST
HIGHS. FORECAST HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE KEPT AS IS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER CLEARING OF THE STRATUS BEFORE THE END OF PEAK
HEATING. SKIES WILL ULTIMATELY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. WINDS WILL OVERALL BE LIGHT AND WILL HELP FOR SURFACE
COOLING, BUT DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S
AREA WIDE. ON THE FLIP SIDE, WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
MOST AREAS FROM SEEING RADIATIONAL FOG. OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING FOG, AND MODELS, EVEN THE HISTORICALLY
BULLISH NAM, ARE NOT EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECT FOR FOG. IT WILL BE
KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING. DESPITE THIS, SOME
SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY IS STILL POSSIBLE (AS LOW AS 5SM). WINDS
SHOULD MOSTLY STAY OUT OF THE EAST SUNDAY, NOT FULLY VEERING TO THE
SOUTH UNTIL MONDAY, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO COUNTERACT
THE BUILDING UPPER HIGH IN REGARDS TO AFTERNOON HIGHS SUNDAY, WITH
HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 70S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW 80S OFF THE
CAPROCK.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGHING
TRIES TO TAKE HOLD, BUT THIS EVENTUALLY BECOMES A VERY WEAK
BLOCKING PATTERN BY MID WEEK. THE BLOCKING PATTERN ALSO BREAKS BY
LATE WEEK WITH THE RESULTING UPPER LOW SKIRTING THE GULF COAST.
THE RESULTING PATTERN FOR WEST TEXAS WILL BE RATHER BENIGN WEATHER
WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS INCREASING TO THE 80S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER
80S/LOW 90S OFF THE CAPROCK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEARING, HOWEVER MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT
ALL SITES THROUGH AROUND MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING VFR. LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...19
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