765
FXUS64 KLUB 041647
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
PLEASANT EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER STICKS AROUND AS WE CLOSE OUT THE
WEEKEND. ALOFT, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
SOUTHERN OK INTO NORTH TX, WITH A DISTINCT POCKET OF ENHANCED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER STILL PRESENT JUST TO OUR
EAST. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM IA/NE DOWN THROUGH THE TX
PANHANDLE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHICH WILL IN TURN MAINTAIN A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD LAYER OVER MOST OF THE REGION THE REST OF TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE RESERVOIR
OF RICH MOISTURE ON OUR DOORSTEP, BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LIMITED AND AS SUCH WILL KEEP POPS SILENT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR MODEST WARMING STREAK WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TODAY AND THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER KEEPING LOWS RELATIVELY MILD IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY, THE RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL EXIT
TO THE SE AS A MODEST RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BEGINS BUILDING
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER WHILE
ALSO BOOSTING TEMPS A BIT HIGHER WITH MAXT ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
THE THEME OF GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK AS THE JET STREAM AND UPPER LEVEL STORM TRACK REMAIN
DISPLACED WELL TO OUR NORTH. MOST MODELS AGREE THAT A WEAK BLOCKING
PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW CONUS TUE-THU
WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING OVERHEAD. SURFACE FLOW WILL RETURN
TO A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THIS PERIOD, AND ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S. BY LATE WEEK, THE PATTERN IS
PROGGED TO EVOLVE SUCH THAT A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
ESTABLISH SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BIG BEND REGION. THIS
COULD BRING A RETURN OF LIGHT RAIN CHANCES MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES BY FRIDAY, BUT ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS OVER
MOST OF OUR AREA AS THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
FORCING REMAINS SUBTLE GIVEN ONLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. OVERALL,
EXPECT A PLEASANT (BUT PERHAPS A BIT WARM) WEEK ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
VFR AND LIGHT NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...19
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