268
FXUS64 KLUB 050516
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1216 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
- MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEK, THOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS INTO THE ARKLATX REGIONS, WHILE OFF TO OUR WEST THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS A
RESULT, THE MAIN PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH
WHERE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER, ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
REGION, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TRANSPORT DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. THOUGH, A SMALL PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THOUGH THIS MOISTURE IS
LIMITED, MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED POCKETS OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THIS HAPPENING, SO WILL WITHHOLD ANY
MENTION IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR NOW. THOUGH DRIER AIR IS
FILTERING THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS, LOWER LEVELS WILL
MAINTAIN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH WILL AID IN SCATTERED CLOUD
COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAINS ON THE WARMER SIDE IN THE 50S AND 60S UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS. AS FOR MONDAY, A QUIET AND WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED AS THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH THE INCREASE IN GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER ACROSS THE CAPROCK THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL HELP
KEEP COOLER HIGHS WEST OF I-27 WHILE EAST OF THIS HIGHS WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THANKS TO THE CLEARER SKIES. AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH AS
LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN SOUTHEASTERN CO WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. DESPITE
WARMER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD,
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX RADIATIONAL
COOLING. WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR THE SAME AND/OR
SLIGHTLY COOLER FROM WHAT WE SEE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING, WITH
THE MAIN THEME BEING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN CHANGE? THERE IS
SOME HOPE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATE WEEK. SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SWCONUS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES TRANSLATE THROUGH THE PACNW REGIONS, LEADING TO A WEAK
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THOUGH HEIGHTS WILL BE NEAR
STATIONARY, SURFACE WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR NORTH. AS A RESULT,
INCREASED THICKNESS VALUES WILL AID IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOVE
SEASONAL STANDARDS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, CLIMBING INTO THE 80S AND
90S ACROSS THE CAPROCK REGIONS. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, NBM POPS
ARE TRYING TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROGUE SHOWER AND/OR
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE
TRACKING NEAR THE US/MEXICO BORDER. THOUGH, DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THIS, KEEPING THE
BULK OF MOISTURE AND FORCING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. DEPENDING ON HOW
THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES, ALONG WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN WE ARE
ABLE TO SEE WILL DETERMINE IF AREAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES WILL LUCK OUT. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN NBM NON-MENTIONABLE
(THOUGH NOT ZERO) POPS UNTIL WE GETTER BETTER AGREEMENT FROM MODELS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT THE DRIER AND WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
BARRING A MARGINAL WINDOW FOR FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT LBB AND PVW,
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUES.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...93
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