930
FXUS64 KLUB 061135
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
635 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
- MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEK, THOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
NOT MUCH TO REPORT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE LATE THIS
EVENING, THANKS TO THE WEAK BLOCKING PATTERN CURRENTLY SETTING UP
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FA PLACED BENEATH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS A RESULT, DRIER FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY.
WHILE AT THE LOWER LEVELS, A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES, WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH WINDS WILL RETURN TO A
MORE UPSLOPE COMPONENT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. NONETHELESS, SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
SFC TO H7 LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR WAA INTO THE REGION, AIDING IN
INCREASED THICKNESS VALUES. IN COMBINATION WITH THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS, WE CAN EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER, CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S OFF THE CAPROCK AND
UPPER 80S OFF THE CAPROCK. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
50S AND 60S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PACKAGE, WHILE WEAKENING, IN RESPONSE TO A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIPPLING ACROSS THE PACNW. THOUGH HEIGHTS
WILL BE NEAR STATIONARY, SURFACE WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT OUT OF THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR NORTH. THIS
WILL ALLOW THICKNESS VALUES TO INCREASE WHICH WILL AID IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL STANDARDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND
90S ACROSS THE CAPROCK REGIONS AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. A FEW
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE STILL ATTEMPTING TO SUGGEST A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ROW
OF COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS
THROUGH THE BIG BEND. HOWEVER, MOST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE MAINTAINS
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE AREA WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THIS. THE OUTLIER, IN A SHOCKING TURN OF EVENTS, BEING THE GEFS
SUGGESTING A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE LOW-LYING ROLLING
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING. IF ENOUGH
RETURN MOISTURE CAN ENTER THE REGION, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
ISENTROPIC DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER,
CONSIDERING THE LACK OF FORCING AND THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE BEING
TO OUR SOUTH, THIS FORECASTER THINKS THAT MOST NWP GUIDANCE MAY BE A
BIT BULLISH CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC SET-UP. WILL OPT TO
KEEP NBM NON MENTIONABLE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING, THOUGH POPS MAY
NEED TO BE UPDATED IF GUIDANCE CHANGES. A BRIEF AND SUBTLE COOL-DOWN
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH SCATTERED HIGH-CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY AS MOIST-UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE MUCH COOLER, MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO, BUT
DEPENDING ON HOW THIS FORECAST EVOLVES, WE COULD SEE EVEN COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGHS. THIS "COOL DOWN" WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, WITH THE
RETURN OF WARM HIGHS BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...93
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page