552
FXUS64 KLUB 061707
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1207 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS WE REMAIN BENEATH A
BROAD ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WHICH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES A BIT
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
SIMILAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. WINDS WILL BE PLEASANTLY LIGHT WEDNESDAY AS
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION, BUT MODEST MIDLEVEL HEIGHT
RISES WILL LEAD TO AN EVEN WARMER DAY COMPARED TO TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH A GENERALLY STAGNANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN PERSISTING. MOST MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK REX-TYPE BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES DURING THIS TIME, WHICH WILL CONSEQUENTLY
FAVOR DRY WEATHER AS TROPICAL MOISTURE IS CONFINED WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKELY EACH DAY, AND WHILE THIS IS
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WE EXPECT TO REMAIN WELL BELOW RECORD
VALUES. THIS WEEKEND, MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A RETURN TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS COULD RESULT IN A RETURN OF BETTER MOISTURE
COURTESY OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, BUT FOR NOW A DRY FORECAST IS
FAVORED. THE MORE NOTICABLE IMPACT WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE
YET ANOTHER WARM-UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. CURRENT WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...10
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