550
FXUS64 KLUB 071735
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1235 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- CHANCES FOR COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING H5
RIDGE. THUS, DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BEFORE WE SEE FLOW BECOME MORE EASTERLY IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS REGION.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, WARM-UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS
CONTINUES OVER SOUTHEAST CO, WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL INFLUENCE
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK ABOVE SEASONAL STANDARDS IN THE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THURSDAY WE WILL SEE A
FEW CHANGES, AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, AS SURFACE FLOW BACKS OUT OF
THE EAST AS A SURFACE HIGH CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE DFW METRO.
DESPITE THIS, RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN LATER IN THE
EVENING, SO WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF THE WIND IN REGARDS TO AFTERNOON HIGHS. CONSIDERING
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG WITH GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS NEAR
STATIONARY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUATION OF
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE WE SEE A
SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHERE WE COULD SEE THE
RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED, A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE CAPROCK REGIONS, WHICH WILL ALLOW ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE IN THE 80S AND 90S, ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PACNW AND
DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY MONDAY. IN TURN, THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST WHILE BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE REGION. AS WE
SEE THE RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW, MOIST SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
WORK TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PART OF THE EXTENDED, ESPECIALLY WITH WHAT IS
NOW CURRENTLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E. DEPENDING ON HOW THIS
EVOLVES, WE COULD SEE MORE MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
BEING DEPICTED BY NWP GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY, WE WILL GO AHEAD AND MAINTAIN NBM MENTIONABLE POPS
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY CONSIDERING BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO ALIGN WITH A WETTER OUTCOME. HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE GFS BEING THE MORE BULLISH
MODELS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF, WHICH LOOKS TO BE IN PART TO THE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL PLAY A PART IN HOW SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...30
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page