973
FXUS64 KLUB 142336
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 620 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
- RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING OFF THE CAPROCK CONTINUES THROUGH
TONIGHT.
- SOME SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON OFF THE CAPROCK.
- COLD FRONT THURSDAY DELIVERS BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AND
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES.
- LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS BREWING FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OFF THE CAPROCK ACCOMPANIED BY MORE FLOODING POTENTIAL.
THE BIG PICTURE SHOWED AN UPPER LOW ATOP THE FOUR CORNERS AT 11 AM
AND MODELS ARE KEEN TO MOVE THIS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BROADER HEIGHT FALLS ARE NOW
UNDERWAY OVER OUR AREA WITHIN WEAKLY CYCLONIC SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
ALONG WITH AN AXIS OF UPPER DIFLUENCE HAS MAINTAINED A BROAD PLUME
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL CURB HIGH TEMPS OVER EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE FAR SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S REMAIN IN STORE. A COLD FRONT SNUCK SOUTH AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE IN NORTHERN PARMER COUNTY, BUT THIS IS ALREADY STALLING
AND SHOULD NOT MAKE MUCH ADDITIONAL HEADWAY SOUTH UNTIL THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WERE LOWERED NEAR THIS FRONT WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HOLDING TIGHT.
AS THE UPPER LOW AND STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ADVANCE EAST LATER TODAY,
WE EXPECT THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT TO REMAIN JUST EAST OF I-27 AND
HIGHWAY 87 CLOSER TO A POOL OF RICH PWATS AROUND 1.7" WITH 850 MB
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S, SOMETHING NOT TOO COMMON IN THESE PARTS.
GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS ON TOP OF AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY
HAD MULTIPLE INCHES WORTH OF RAIN, FLOODING REMAINS IN THE PICTURE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY TO THE TUNE OF 2000-
3500 J/KG OF SBCAPE FOCUSES JUST OFF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THICKER CLOUDS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S
EFFICIENT HAILERS, TODAY'S SETUP IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT WITH
GENERALLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS AND AMPLE CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C
LAYER, BOTH OF WHICH ARE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. LOW
LFCS AND SOME HODOGRAPH KINKING IN THE IMMEDIATE LOW LEVELS MAY
AGAIN GIVE RISE TO BRIEF LOW-LEVEL MESOS AND A TORNADO RISK. THE
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO DEPART FROM THE ROLLING PLAINS BY 9-11 PM
AHEAD OF INCREASED MID-LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE, ALTHOUGH THIS
DRYING STRUGGLES TO MAKE MUCH HEADWAY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OR
SO OF THE CWA WHERE WE'LL KEEP SOME POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS SWEEP SOUTH WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
EFFECTIVELY ENDING RAIN CHANCES OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS. WE'LL BE MONITORING FOR FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE ON THURSDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS THE NBM HAS BEEN UNDERPERFORMING WITH
THIS SO FAR TODAY IN THE TX PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT TAKING RAIN
CHANCES WITH IT, CRISP AUTUMN WEATHER TAKES OVER ON BLUSTERY NORTH
WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR. LOW STRATUS INITIALLY IN THE POST-FRONTAL
LAYER WILL SCOUR OUT ON FRIDAY, BUT SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY UNDER A STUBBORN PLUME OF HIGH CLOUDS. EVEN WITHOUT THE HIGH
CLOUDS, HIGH TEMPS LOOK CAPPED IN THE 50S WHICH SETS THE STAGE FOR A
CHILLY NIGHT AS THE HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR AND NORTH WINDS GO CALM.
LATEST MOS AND NBM PROBS ARE TRENDING COLDER EVERYWHERE WITH A LIGHT
FREEZE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR MUCH OF THE CAPROCK, WHICH IS 1-2
WEEKS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE FOR MANY LOCALES. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER WEAK UPPER RIDGING BEFORE SLOWLY
RECOVERING NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW THAT
IS FAVORED TO DIRECT ANOTHER PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUR
WAY. RAIN CHANCES GEAR UP BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUE THEREAFTER WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
THERE IS CURRENTLY ONGOING STORMS AFFECTING KCDS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING. THERE EXISTS A LOW END CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO MOVE THROUGH ALL THREE TERMINALS AROUND
MIDNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CLEAR OUT BY
THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WINDS AROUND THE NW BY LATE
MORNING TOMORROW ALONG WITH IMPROVING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
COMBS
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ025-026-031-032-037-
038-043-044.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...26
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