869
FXUS64 KLUB 151124
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
624 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 622 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SE TX PANHANDLE.
- BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AS OF LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGHLIGHTS A
CLOSED UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL CO, WITH THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLIER CONVECTION EXITING TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM, AND A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IS VISIBLE ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR MAF AT 03Z WHICH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
AIRMASS REMAINS COOL AND VERY HUMID, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW STILL IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT STILL UP IN THE NORTHERN
TX PANHANDLE. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR A LULL IN PRECIP TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY
ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVES AND THE SSW LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN JUST HOW WIDESPREAD
THIS OVERNIGHT STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE, BUT THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE CAPROCK. THESE OVERNIGHT STORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE, ALTHOUGH PLENTIFUL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SE TX PANHANDLE WHERE A
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL EARLIER WEDNESDAY. HAVE
OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK, GIVEN THE SATURATED
SOILS AND RISK OF HIGH RAIN RATES AND ADDITIONAL TRAINING STORMS
OVERNIGHT. PWATS REMAIN EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
SO ADDITIONAL SWATHS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OFF THE CAPROCK IF CONVECTION BECOMES WIDESPREAD.
A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF
I-27 OVERNIGHT, BUT THESE SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, AND IS PROGGED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID-MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD GENERALLY BRING A GRADUAL
END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, BUT WE DO
EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ITSELF THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BEFORE PRECIPITATION FINALLY
ENDS BY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, POST-FRONTAL NORTH WINDS WILL BE
ON THE BLUSTERY SIDE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS HIGHS ONLY REACH INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT TAKING RAIN
CHANCES WITH IT, CRISP AUTUMN WEATHER TAKES OVER ON BLUSTERY NORTH
WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR. LOW STRATUS INITIALLY IN THE POST-FRONTAL
LAYER WILL SCOUR OUT ON FRIDAY, BUT SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY UNDER A STUBBORN PLUME OF HIGH CLOUDS. EVEN WITHOUT THE HIGH
CLOUDS, HIGH TEMPS LOOK CAPPED IN THE 50S WHICH SETS THE STAGE FOR A
CHILLY NIGHT AS THE HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR AND NORTH WINDS GO CALM.
LATEST MOS AND NBM PROBS ARE TRENDING COLDER EVERYWHERE WITH A LIGHT
FREEZE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR MUCH OF THE CAPROCK, WHICH IS 1-2
WEEKS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE FOR MANY LOCALES. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER WEAK UPPER RIDGING BEFORE SLOWLY
RECOVERING NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW THAT
IS FAVORED TO DIRECT ANOTHER PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUR
WAY. RAIN CHANCES GEAR UP BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUE THEREAFTER WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
LIFR/IFR CIGS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. GUSTS UP TO 30
KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ025-026-031-032-037-038-
043-044.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...19
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