807
FXUS64 KLUB 151749
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1249 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1248 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SE TX
PANHANDLE.
- BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
OUR FIRST "REAL" FALL COLD FRONT HAS ARRIVED AND HAS PUSHED THROUGH
NEARLY TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FLOOD WATCH AND FLOOD WARNING HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED TO 18Z AS STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF THE FA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. BOTH HAZARDS WILL BE
EXTENDED IF THIS ACTIVITY IS MUCH SLOWER TO MOVE EAST, HOWEVER. THE
AREA CURRENTLY IN THE FLOOD WARNING HAS SEEN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH GROUND STATIONS (COOP AND MESONETS)
REPORTING WELL OVER 4 INCHES AND WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF 7+ INCHES,
WHICH SEEMS VERY PLAUSIBLE.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOW END WINDY THIS EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY THANKS TO STEADY POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES OF 6-9
MB PER 6 HOURS. CAA IS NOT OVERLY STRONG WITH THIS FRONT, BUT IT IS
PRESENT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S
FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS JUST AS A SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SETTLE OVER THE FA
AND DROPS WINDS TO 5 MPH OR LESS. THIS WILL BE A DECENT SETUP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
20S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW/MID 30S OFF THE CAPROCK. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LOW TEMPS WILL DROP BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS OF
NOW, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
HITTING AT TO BELOW FREEZING. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND WHERE THE SURFACE LOW
EVENTUALLY SETTLES. THE NBM HAS STARTED TO COME AROUND TO MOST MOS
GUIDANCE. MOS GUIDANCE (MAV, MET, AND ECM) HAVE BEEN POINTING TO
LOWS AT LEAST IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CAPROCK FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW
AND CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH EACH RUN. MET GUIDANCE IS THE COOLEST AT
31 AT KLBB. WHILE THE FORECAST GRIDS DON'T REFLECT THE COOLEST, THEY
HAVE BEEN LOWERED FROM NBM. A FREEZE WATCH WILL ALSO BE IN EFFECT
FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK FROM 06-15Z SATURDAY. WHILE NOT ALL OF THE
AREA MAY SEE FREEZING TEMPS, THEY SHOULD GET LOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE
STRESS TO SENSITIVE PLANTS, ESPECIALLY THOSE STILL TAKING ADVANTAGE
OF THE SEMI-LATE GROWING SEASON AND RECENT RAINFALL. WE ARE ALSO
SEVERAL DAYS FROM THE AVERAGE FIRST FREEZE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
TWO WEEKS BEFORE AT LUBBOCK.
UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND AS PART OF A WEAK
BLOCKING PATTERN, AND THE UPPER HIGH WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHIFTING SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING SURFACE
WINDS TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND WILL HELP TO WARM HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO
MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA BY MID NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE IS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WITH THE FUTURE OF THE UPPER LOW BEYOND
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
SHOWERS CONTINUE AT KCDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
VISIBILITIES AT KCDS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY AS THE INTENSITY OF
RAIN OSCILLATES. SHOWERS ARE DONE AT BOTH KPVW AND KLBB. HOWEVER,
MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. THESE LOW CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THE LOW
CEILINGS CLEAR, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT PUSHED
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.
EACH TAF SITE CAN EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>035-039-040.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ025-026-031-032-
037-038-043-044.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...10
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page