429
FXUS64 KLUB 160537
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1237 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
CAPROCK EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WARM BACK NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THE PLUME OF ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER HAS FINALLY BEGIN SHIFTING TO OUR
EAST. DRY WEATHER IS NOW IN PLACE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM AS FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS AND SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO MOST OF FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF OUR
EARLIER COLD FRONT, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20
TO 30 MPH RANGE GIVEN SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 5
MB IN 3 HOURS. LINGERING HIGH CLOUD COVER AND THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO
DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT, BUT WE STILL EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S AREA-
WIDE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY WILL BE THE CHILLIEST DAY THIS
AREA HAS SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN FACT, THE
LAST TIME THAT LUBBOCK MEASURED A DAYTIME HIGH BELOW 60 DEGREES
WAS WAY BACK ON MAR. 16. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL DECREASE QUITE QUICKLY BY FRIDAY EVENING AS A
SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE TX PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BE DRIVEN BY CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WINDS AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. GENERAL CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
STILL FAVORS LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 20S OVER THE SW
TX PANHANDLE AND LOW 30S OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. SHOULD
CLOUDS BE SLOWER TO CLEAR THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, TEMPS MAY BE
ABLE TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH
IN TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW 32F TO SUPPORT A FREEZE WATCH OVER THE
ENTIRE CAPROCK FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WOULD BE AN EARLY FIRST FREEZE FOR THIS REGION, WITH THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FIRST FREEZE FOR MANY LOCATIONS STILL TWO
OR THREE WEEKS OUT.
SURFACE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY OBTAIN A STRONGER SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON
SATURDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS TO OUR EAST, BUT WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ONE MORE VERY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE 50S
AND LOW 60S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
ROBUST SUNDAY AND BEYOND, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE BUILDING OF A
MODEST UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
KEEPING OUR AREA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, WITH MID/UPPER
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES POSSIBLY RETURNING DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLES TO OUR WEST. FOR
NOW THOUGH, A DRY FORECAST IS STILL FAVORED WITH POOR MODEL
CONSENSUS AT THIS LEAD TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND NOT
DECREASE UNTIL EARLY IN THE EVENING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>041.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...01
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