974
FXUS64 KLUB 171058
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
558 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 556 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
CAPROCK EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN RISE BACK
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
QUIET AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS WEST TX AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. NORTH WINDS HAVE FINALLY
DECREASED AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE
APPROACH OF A ~1038 MB SURFACE RIDGE, AND WE EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME CALM BY SUNRISE AS THIS RIDGE AXIS CENTERS DIRECTLY OVER
OUR AREA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ENDED UP PERSISTING A BIT LONGER
THAN EXPECTED THIS EVENING, BUT HAS ALSO BEGUN TO THIN AND
RETREAT SOUTHWARD, A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING, SUPPORTING THE
COLDEST LOWS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. LOWS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 OVER THE SW
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS, AND WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO
32 (OR EVEN A BIT WARMER) OVER THE REST OF THE CAPROCK. A FREEZE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT. SUNNY SKIES AND CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS
NEAR 60 DEGREES. SSW WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY
EVENING, AND WHILE IT WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S, THE STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
KEEP SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS MORE LIMITED ON SUNDAY MORNING
COMPARED TO SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
SUNDAY BEGINS A WARMING TREND AS WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. MODELS ARE NOW
IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, WHICH KEEPS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR ZERO OVER WEST TX THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO STEADILY WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
AS AS A ~590DAM RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS OF TEMPERATURES NEAR AND ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S MON-TUE AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WED-
FRI. MODELS THEN DIVERGE REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EASTWARD. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS OCCURS, SHOWERS MAY RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ021>024-
027>030-033>036-039>041.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...01
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