440
FXUS64 KLUB 171701
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1201 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN RISE BACK NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN THE MID 30S OR LOWER WERE REPORTED
ON THE CAPROCK THIS MORNING WITH MANY MESONETS REPORTING TEMPS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING. THE LOWEST REPORTED TEMP WAS 26 DEGREES AT BOTH
MULESHOE AND FRIONA. THE LUBBOCK AIRPORT BOTTOMED OUT AT 34 DEGREES.
SURFACE TEMPS HAVE RISEN STEADILY SINCE SUNRISE WITH MOST AREAS NOW
IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 60 THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH BY THE EARLY EVENING AS SURFACE
RIDGING PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS, MID TO UPPER 30S.
UPPER RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BREAK
DOWN BY EARLY SUNDAY AND WILL ALLOW THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO BEGIN PUSHING EASTWARD, ALBEIT SLOWLY.
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER LOW AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL RESPOND BY VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY AND INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 60S SUNDAY BUT, AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
THE UPPER LOW WILL TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH AS IT STRUGGLES
TO MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEFORE IT BECOMES, AT MOST, A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
BY MID WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE WEST COAST. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND UPPER RIDGE BY LATE WEEK. THE UPPER
LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH AS IT REACHES THE FOUR CORNERS.
THIS PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL FOR NEW
MEXICO, BUT WEST TEXAS WOULD BE AT RISK OF DRYSLOTTING AS WE MOVE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS DO HAVE SOME STORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT
THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS TIME MOVES CLOSER. ULTIMATELY, THE
DRYSLOT RISK WILL DEPEND ON THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH. THEY WILL REMAIN VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...10
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