100
FXUS64 KLUB 180439
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1139 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN RISE BACK NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
QUIET, COOLER, AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN AND SCOOT EAST SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOCAL BEGINNING TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
DEVELOP AND INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT, LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME BREEZY BY
DAYBREAK. EXPECT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS FIXATED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTHERN PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, THESE WARM
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AID IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SLIGHTLY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY SUNSET, WITH SPEEDS FALLING BACK BELOW 15 MPH
WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR MAX RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
THE FA WILL FIND ITSELF BENEATH THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATX REGION MONDAY MORNING,
AMPLIFYING AND SHIFTING WESTWARD BACK OVER THE WEST TEXAS REGION BY
MID-WEEK. AS A RESULT, WILL SEE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHIFT WESTERLY
WITH INCREASED GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS. THICKNESS VALUES WILL ALSO
INCREASE, THANKS TO A AN H7 AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A LEE
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CO. IN RESPONSE, WARM SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL WORK TO TRANSPORT WAA INTO THE REGION WORKING IN
COMBINATION WITH THE INCREASED HEIGHT VALUES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TO BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN
ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, THOUGH NWP GUIDANCE STILL
HINTS AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE REGION. IF THIS COMES TO
FRUITION, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL AREAS NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO
STATE LINE MIGHT SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS AND/OR SHOWERS AS THEY
MOVE IN FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
THIS AT THIS TIME AND SO WE WILL REMAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR THE TIME
BEING. HOWEVER, THIS MAY NEED TO BE CHANGED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THIS NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
BASE OF A TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PROVINCES TO SWING
A COLD FRONT AND BRING PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
CONSIDERING THIS REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS OUT, THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
WETTER SOLUTION. WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER AND DRIER. FOR NOW
WILL MAINTAIN NBM MENTIONABLE POPS AREA-WIDE UNTIL WE SEE BETTER
AGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY
BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...01
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