493
FXUS64 KLUB 181658
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1158 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1157 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES
POSSIBLE LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
SURFACE WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LEE
TROUGH THAT HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TO
OUR WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON, HIGHEST ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES, AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE BASE OF THE LEE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO/NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
BREEZY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW DISSIPATES. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL ONLY BE A SHADOW OF ITS FORMER SELF MONDAY, BECOMING A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. WHILE THIS MAY
BRING SOME RAINFALL TO NEW MEXICO, IT SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE FA.
TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THANKS TO ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS,
AVERAGING NEAR 50 AREA WIDE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
GRADUAL WARMING AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK. AN AGGRESSIVE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY, BECOMING A CLOSED H544 LOW BY THIS
POINT. IT WILL BROADEN AND TRAVEL PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST THROUGH
MID WEEK BEFORE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING
WILL AMPLIFY DURING THIS TIME OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND WILL, FOR A
SHORT PERIOD, SLOW AND ALMOST STOP THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER LOW. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH
HIGHS REACHING AROUND 80 BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS REMAIN MIXED OVER THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THEY
ARE SIMILAR WITH HAVING THE BULK OF THE UPPER LOW PHASING WITH THE
MAIN FLOW, THAT IS WHERE THE SIMILARITIES END. THE GFS HOLDS ON TO
PART OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH EVENTUALLY
ABSORBS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE TRUDY IN THE PACIFIC, LEADING TO
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF LOSES HOPE
WITH THE UPPER LOW AND PHASES THE ENTIRE LOW WITH THE MAIN UPPER
FLOW AND TRIES A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO THE GFS EXCEPT USING A NEW,
FRESH UPPER LOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...10
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