233
FXUS64 KLUB 190329
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1029 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1028 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
- THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH
CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURNING BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER SOCAL, WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THROUGH TONIGHT, THE SHORTWAVE WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN WHILE SHIFTING
EASTWARD AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. ANY
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW MAY ATTEMPT TO TAP INTO THE
LIMITED MIDLEVEL MOISTURE, THOUGH THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
UNFAVORABLE FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION. WITH ANY SHOWER THAT
DEVELOPS LIKELY BEING "VIRGA" WITH THE OUTCOME BEING A LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO RATHER THAN PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND. AS SUCH, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT,
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ALLOWING LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK, THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
PROMOTES INCREASED THICKNESS VALUES DESPITE THE WEAKENING
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER RIDGE.
THOUGH WARMER, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE AND
JUST BELOW OR RIGHT AT SEASONAL STANDARDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN
THE 70S AREA-WIDE. ADDITIONALLY, SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WORKS TO MAINTAIN THE WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
THE FA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING BACK WESTWARD AND BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WEDNESDAY. THIS
BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING NEAR
THE CAROLINA COASTLINE, WHILE A SECONDARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACNW
DIGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA. INCREASING GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES, ALONG WITH CONTINUED WAA FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LEE SURFACE TROUGHING, WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. ALONG WITH THE WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES,
WE CAN ALSO EXPECT THE DRIER TREND TO CONTINUE AS WELL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A POTENTIAL
RETURN OF PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO EVOLVE.
HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THE BROADER TROUGH,
WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHILE THE GFS
DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. DESPITE THESE
DIFFERENCES, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE VAST AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM WITH IT BEING
SEVERAL DAYS OUT, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS NEW GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE AND IN BETTER AGREEMENT. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN
NBM MENTIONABLE POPS AREA-WIDE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY A BIT OF
MIDLEVEL CLOUD COVER PRESENT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...30
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