527
FXUS64 KLUB 192313
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
613 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 612 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
- THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING
SLIGHTLY BY THE WEEKEND.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH
CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURNING BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
WE CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO SNEAKING
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MUCH EXCEPT FOR LIGHT RAIN AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE THESE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT, OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENT
UPPER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TO THE EAST
WHILE AN UPPER LOW SITS OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN COAST WHILE THE UPPER
RIDGING EXPANDS WEST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL SHIFT THE UPPER
FLOW FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AS THE UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WILL WARM TO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET ONE; HOWEVER,
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS.LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW LOWS TO COOL TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY CHANGE COURSE AND PUSH ONSHORE OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SLIGHT HEIGHT AND THICKNESS INCREASES
WILL SLIGHTLY WARM TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY, BUT ONLY BY A DEGREE OR
TWO WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL START OFF WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE STUBBORN UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL.
HEIGHT AND THICKNESS INCREASES WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR ZERO. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH ALL THE WAY ONSHORE,
DOMINATING WESTERN CONUS. BY THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGING WILL
FINALLY GET WITH THE PROGRAM AND SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SPANNING ACROSS WESTERN TO CENTRAL
CONUS, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN ALOFT, USHERING IN
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND MULTIPLE PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EVERYDAY OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALSO
SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
SOUTH WINDS AND VFR PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30
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