410
FXUS64 KLUB 201112
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
612 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 610 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
- DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
BACK TO OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
- COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING ANALYZES A SLOW MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH PERTURBATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSLATING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WEAK
DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH HAVE BEEN THE PRIMER FOR LINGERING
ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. AS THIS
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WE CAN EXPECT A SIMILAR RESULT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
INTO TUESDAY TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE CAPROCK REGIONS. GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE, WITH MOST MOISTURE PRESENT AROUND THE H3 TO
H7 LAYER GIVEN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT VIA SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF "VIRGA"
WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. WITH THAT BEING SAID, A FEW WTM STATIONS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
PICK UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND
LITTLE IS BETTER THAN NOTHING! GIVEN A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
BE IN PLACE, EXPECT A SIMILAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WHILE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TUESDAY CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. AS FOR WINDS, EXPECT RELATIVELY SOUTHERLY
WINDS, VARYING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A LEE SURFACE
LOW DIGS INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO
SHIFT WINDS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY
WARMER LOWS, IN PART TO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS A SURFACE
HIGH CENTERS OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, ALONG WITH THE CONTINUATION
OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS AN OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED. WHILE A CLOSED LOW DIGS
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PACNW TOWARDS THE SOCAL REGION. INCREASING
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES FROM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LEE
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. HIGHS
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE
WEEK, REACHING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE AND PROVIDES SUBSIDENCE, LIMITING FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND KEEPING PRECIPITATION LOW.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS.
BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT COMPARED
TO WHAT WE SAW 24 HOURS AGO, IN REGARDS OF A SECONDARY LOW NEAR THE
BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH. THOUGH DIFFERENCES PERSIST IN REGARDS TO
THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SECONDARY LOW AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD.
DESPITE THIS UNCERTAINTY FROM GLOBAL MODELS, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS
THE FA, WITH ENSEMBLE PWATS WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE
OCTOBER. DECENT MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, AIDED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE SURFACE WINDS HELPING TO DRAW GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. GIVEN THE REMAINING SPREAD IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE
TROUGH, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS BEFORE
BECOMING MORE CERTAIN IN TIMING AND EVOLUTION. FOR NOW, WILL
MAINTAIN NBM MENTIONABLE POPS AREA-WIDE. WITH THIS, NOT ONLY MAY WE
SEE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL, BUT CAN EXPECT THE RETURN OF
FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE KCDS TERMINAL OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BUT NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF LOW CIGS AND VISBYS IS POSSIBLE AT KLBB AND KPVW EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...01
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