538
FXUS64 KLUB 201708
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1208 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1204 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NEAR-NORMAL CONDITIONS.
- COOLER AND WETTER LATE-WEEK THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE DEPARTS EASTWARD. CONDITIONS
INTO THE EVENING WILL BE PLEASANT, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG UPPER LOW
APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY A RIDGE OUT
AHEAD OF IT ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BUILD OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH AND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY, HOWEVER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME ITS
INFLUENCE SHOULD ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED LEADING
SHORTWAVES COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TX/NM
BORDER. A SECONDARY CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND TRACK ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO
SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY WITH
TRAINING STORMS. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL PHASE WITH THE MAIN SYNOPTIC
FLOW PATTERN ON MONDAY CREATING A BROAD, POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
WILL RESULT. AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT, THE PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AFTER THAT
POINT, HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO BE A WET START TO NEXT WEEK AT LEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK TO ONLY REACH
THE LOW-TO-MID 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR PVW AND CDS THROUGH 00Z BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
ON THE TERMINALS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...51
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