087
FXUS64 KLUB 210508
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1208 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
- PLEASANT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- COLD FRONT POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
RADAR HAS SHOWN SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN NM THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS, HOWEVER HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED. ALTHOUGH, THESE SHOWERS NEVER
IMPACTED OUR FORECAST AREA BECAUSE THEY WERE QUICK TO DIE AS THEY
APPROACHED THE STATE LINE. AFTER A PLEASANT AND SUNNY TUESDAY, WE
CAN EXPECT A QUIET AND SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT PERIOD COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT. LOWS WILL COOL TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH CURRENT UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER
RIDGING SITTING OVER THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LOW IS
PARKED OVER EASTERN PACIFIC, JUST OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA.
SLIGHT HEIGHT AND THICKNESS INCREASES BELOW THE RIDGING AND SUNNY
SKIES WILL WARM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES. LIGHT WINDS WILL START OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL START OFF WITH A NICE AND PLEASANT
THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVERHEAD MUCH OF THE DAY
THURSDAY, HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL
MOVE ONSHORE EFFECTIVELY PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGING TO THE EAST. THIS
UPPER PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTS ONSHORE, FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
PUMPING IN PLENTY OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL START OFF ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK FRIDAY BEFORE
EXPANDING EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THE GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS IS HEAVY RAIN THAT
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING WITH PWATS UP TO 1.25 INCHES. DAILY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES OFF WITH HIGHS REACHING
LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
REGION MONDAY PROLONGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. CURRENT MODEL RUNS DIFFER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING,
ALTHOUGH NOT BY MUCH. GFS HAS A FASTER TRACK WITH THE FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ECMWF HAS A SLOWER TRACK WITH THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SMALL CHANCE OF LOW CIGS
AND VISBYS IS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING AT KLBB AND
KPVW. HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01
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