064
FXUS64 KLUB 211745
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1245 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
- COOLER AND WETTER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST
AMPLIFYING A RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AND DRY
CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH. QUIET
WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MOVE
ONSHORE ON THURSDAY, SHIFTING THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER,
THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH WILL STILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF
OUR AREA AND CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY OUTSIDE OF
SLIGHTLY MORE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
THE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME ELONGATED AND SPLIT BEGINNING FRIDAY. THIS
WILL SOMEWHAT INHIBIT MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR AREA AND IT NOW
LOOKS AS THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY EVERYWHERE
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A FULL CLOSED LOW WILL BECOME COMPLETELY
CUTOFF OVER SOCAL/SOUTHERN AZ BY SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE IT
DIPPING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH FROM YESTERDAY, THUS THE MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE TX/NM BORDER. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EASTWARD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FETCH OUT
AHEAD OF IT WILL SHIFT CONCURRENTLY EASTWARD AS WELL. THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WILL STILL PRIMARILY REMAIN ON THE CAPROCK THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL STAY CUTOFF AS IT TURNS MORE DUE
EASTWARD OVER CO/KS. ONCE THIS OCCURS, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD OUR ENTIRE REGION ON MONDAY, AFTER WHICH TIME THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
GRADUALLY END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...51
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