640
FXUS64 KLZK 150855
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
255 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE SATELLITE PERSPECTIVE CONFIRM THE QUIET
START TO THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 40S
OVER THE DELTA UNDER CLEAR SKIES. T/TD DEPRESSIONS ARE SMALL ENOUGH
ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE THAT A LITTLE PATCHY FOG OR EVEN PATCHY
FROST REMAINS POSSIBLE AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO
THE GRIDS OR THE FROST ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND
ON THE SURFACE TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE THE AXIS OF SAID RIDGE MOVES
TO THE EAST SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SE CONUS BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DROPS INTO THE WEST. UPPER
PATTERN WILL BUCKLE IN RESPONSE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE CWA WITH AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION.
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TODAY AND
SATURDAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW INCREASES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
SUNDAY/MONDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A H500 RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN REGION OF THE CONUS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
ARKANSAS. A QUICKLY EJECTING TROF OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION
OF THE CONUS WILL RAPIDLY MAKE HASTE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION
OF THE CONUS. AT THE SFC, A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE PLACED
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING
EASTWARD INTO THE MID-WEST REGION OF THE CONUS AND A SOUTHWARD
EXTENDING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN TEXAS.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES AT THE UPPER LVLS AND SFC WILL
EQUATE TO UNSETTLED WEATHER, BUT IT WILL BE A FAST-MOVING SYSTEM
THAT IMPACTS THE STATE OF ARKANSAS AND CWA ON SUNDAY INTO THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH MOSTLY RAIN, BUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION; HOWEVER, A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES OVER THIS TWO DAY PERIOD WILL BE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH BOTH LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID-NOVEMBER.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY:
THE UPPER LVL TROF MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION OF THE CONUS
WITH A WELL DEFINED CYCLONE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF, BUT SLOWS
CONSIDERABLY. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT COMPLETES THE JOURNEY THROUGH
ARKANSAS PUSHING RAIN EAST OF THE STATE. POP CHANCES DO EXIST OVER
THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LVL CYCLONE AND
NEAR SFC TROF, BUT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A CONSIDERABLE CONFIDENT
SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE BESIDES POPS ACROSS FAR EASTERN ARKANSAS
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE EASTERN FLANK OF ARKANSAS AND
MOVES INTO MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE.
TEMPERATURES OVER THIS THREE DAY PERIOD WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BUT AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS SWEEP
THROUGH THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
FUNNEL IN TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE BY
THURSDAY INTO THE LATE WEEK ACROSS ARKANSAS AS A COMBINATION OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LVLS WILL ASSIST IN THIS TRANSITIONS
OF TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID-NOVEMBER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH A NE COMPONENT OVER EASTERN AR WITH
MORE OF A W TO SW WIND OVER THE WEST,
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 40 64 46 71 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN AR 40 72 50 76 / 0 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 38 64 47 69 / 0 0 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 40 68 49 73 / 0 0 0 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 43 69 50 74 / 0 0 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 43 71 52 76 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 39 69 48 72 / 0 0 0 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 39 63 46 69 / 0 0 0 10
NEWPORT AR 40 64 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 41 70 49 75 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 40 67 47 73 / 0 0 0 10
SEARCY AR 40 67 46 73 / 0 0 0 10
STUTTGART AR 42 67 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARZ103-112-121-
130-137-203-212-221-230-237.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...56
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