691
FXUS64 KLZK 160536
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1136 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS, AS UPPER RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER THESE CLEAR AND STAGNANT CONDITIONS,
WITH LIGHT WINDS, FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG, DISSIPATING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AREAS
OF PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS.
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY, AND WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
STATE. AN UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE REGION
SATURDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE BY SUNDAY, AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL RAIN
IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AS THE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK
ACRS THE MID-SOUTH. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONT TO SHOW A STRONG STORM SYS
EJECTING OUT OF FAR WEST TX SUN NIGHT, THEN RACE NORTHEASTWARD THRU
THE PLAINS STATES MON AND TUE. THE UPPER SYSTEM WL TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT PASSES ACRS THE FA MON INTO TUE, WITH WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCD CDFNT.
WAA PATTERN WILL BE IN FULL SWING, AS INCREASING S/SE WINDS BRING
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE FA. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DVLP SUN NGT, MAINLY ACRS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA, AS LLJ RAMPS
UP, ALONG WITH A LEAD WEAK SWT PASSING THRU THE REGION. BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN
RAIN CHCS DURG THE MIDDAY PERIOD ON MON.
A LINE OF STORMS IS FCST TO DVLP OVER OK AND EASTERN TX MON AFTN, AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT APCHS FROM THE WEST. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE POSSIBLE, AS PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.50" ARE
FCST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ON THE PLUS SIDE, GROUND CONDS ARE STILL
QUITE DRY OVER MOST OF THE FA AND THE STORM SYS WL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY TO THE EAST, LIMITING THE FF POTENTIAL.
THERE RMNS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ASSOCD WITH
THE FROPA LATE MON AND MON NIGHT, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
CONCERN. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
HEADING INTO MON NIGHT.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO AR FOR TUE. ANOTHER UPPER TROF WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE FA TUE NIGHT INTO WED, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR
BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONT. THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS IN STORE LATER NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL BUT WILL BE MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST WITH TIME. AS SUCH, WIDESPREAD VFR CONDTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE
EAST, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE
DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 40 63 46 70 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN AR 41 72 50 75 / 0 0 0 20
HARRISON AR 38 64 47 69 / 0 0 0 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 41 68 50 71 / 0 0 0 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 42 68 50 73 / 0 0 0 20
MONTICELLO AR 43 71 52 75 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 40 69 49 71 / 0 0 0 40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 39 63 46 69 / 0 0 0 20
NEWPORT AR 42 63 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 41 69 49 74 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 41 67 48 73 / 0 0 0 20
SEARCY AR 40 65 46 71 / 0 0 0 10
STUTTGART AR 43 67 49 72 / 0 0 0 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...56
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