843
FXUS64 KLZK 160915
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
315 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER OF
LATE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST AND IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LIGHT SURFACE FLOW AND MINIMAL T/TD DEPRESSIONS
HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE STATE BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE THE FOG
EXPAND THROUGH SUNRISE, WHEN IT WILL BEGIN TO BURN OFF RATHER
QUICKLY.
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY AS A RATHER EXPANSIVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND
WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE BAJA PENINSULA. FLOW
ALOFT WILL MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE WHILE SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY, THERE
WILL BE AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AS THE OVERALL FLOW REGIME CHANGES.
WESTERN TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY WITH A
RATHER ROBUST UPPER LOW FORMING IN ITS BASE WHICH SWINGS INTO FAR
WEST TEXAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO
WESTERN ARKANSAS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD TO THE
NORTH DURING THE EVENING. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DECREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PERIOD CONCLUDES BUT
RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN IN THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS SURGING INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF
THE STATE WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS REMAINING IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
MONDAY:
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LVL CLOSED LOW AT THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING
TROF WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY, THIS TROF WILL EJECT QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN AXIS OF
WINDS AT H500 OF 90-100+ KNOTS AND JET DYNAMICS A TAD CLOSER TO THE
SFC AT H700 SHOWING A STRONG SYMBOL OF WINDS BETWEEN 70-90 KNOTS. AT
THE SFC, A DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH AN ATTENDANT EASTWARD EXTENDING
STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT WILL REACH INTO THE MID-WEST REGION OF THE
CONUS AND AN ATTENDANT SOUTHWARD EXTENDING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
PARALLEL TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.
EXPECT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
STATE OF ARKANSAS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE WITH SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSITIONED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
ADDITIONALLY ON MONDAY, EXPECT STATEWIDE SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL
LIKELY BE HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW AND THE UPPER LVL JET DYNAMICS. HOWEVER,
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE REALM OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40+ MPH STILL POSSIBLE STATEWIDE, BUT INCREASED
CHANCES FOR HIGHER WINDS/WIND GUSTS ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:
THE UPPER LVL TROF WILL EJECT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA AND A
SECOND UPPER LVL TROF WILL POSITION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION
OF THE CONUS. AT THE SFC, THE COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETE THE JOURNEY
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH ARKANSAS POSITIONED ACROSS THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THE STATE WHERE POPS MAY REMAIN ON A PORTION OF TUESDAY,
BUT QUICKLY BE USHERED EASTWARD BY A SECOND, DRY COLD FRONT THAT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO BE CONFINED TO
EASTERN ARKANSAS ON TUESDAY WITH CLEARING BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY:
THE SECOND UPPER LVL TROF WILL TAKE TIME TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE NOTED OVER ARKANSAS. AT
THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL BE NOTED.
EXPECT OVERALL CLEAR CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER TO END THE WORKWEEK
ACROSS CWA AND ENTIRE STATE OF ARKANSAS; TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL
ALSO BECOME NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH SOME
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD [MONDAY THRU FRIDAY]:
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ADVECTS WARM
AND MOIST AIR INTO ARKANSAS VIA THE GULF OF MEXICO, EXPECT BOTH
MORNING LOW AND AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN 10 TO 20+
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE COMPARED TO NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
HOWEVER, INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST (WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY) TO CLOSE OUT THE WORKWEEK, EXPECT MORNING LOW AND
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BECOME NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL BE USHERED INTO THE CWA AND ARKANSAS BEHIND THE SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL BUT WILL BE MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST WITH TIME. AS SUCH, WIDESPREAD VFR CONDTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE
EAST, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE
DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 64 45 71 57 / 0 0 10 40
CAMDEN AR 71 51 75 61 / 0 0 30 20
HARRISON AR 64 47 71 57 / 0 0 10 70
HOT SPRINGS AR 68 49 71 61 / 0 0 40 50
LITTLE ROCK AR 68 51 74 62 / 0 0 20 40
MONTICELLO AR 71 53 77 62 / 0 0 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 69 48 71 60 / 0 0 50 60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 62 46 71 57 / 0 0 20 70
NEWPORT AR 63 45 71 59 / 0 0 10 30
PINE BLUFF AR 70 50 75 61 / 0 0 10 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 67 48 73 61 / 0 0 30 60
SEARCY AR 66 46 73 60 / 0 0 10 30
STUTTGART AR 68 50 74 62 / 0 0 10 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...56
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