196
FXUS64 KLZK 161942
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
142 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME SCATTERED UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
STATE.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND SURFACE HIGH CENTER HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW/SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
HAS RETURNED TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 80S
AND CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES TOWARDS THE MIDWEST REGION MONDAY, WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME. RAIN WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
STATE SUNDAY, SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF WEST, CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA
EARLY MON EVENING, WITH THE ASSOCD STORM SYS CENTERED OVR EASTERN
NE/WESTERN IA, BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. SOME STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE ACTIVITY AS IT WORKS TO THE EAST MON
NIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WX WL BE DIMINISHING.
MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE THAT ALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE EAST OF THE
MS RIVER BEFORE DAYBREAK TUE. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
INITIAL WIND SHIFT WL BRING MUCH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR INTO
THE NATURAL STATE. HIGHS TUE AFTN WL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO THE MID
70S.
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW IS FCST TO MOVE FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WL BRING ANOTHER CDFNT ACRS THE FA, ALONG WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO AR, AIDED BY BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
EXPECT AN INCRS IN CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALONG WITH SOME LOW END
RAIN CHCS (~20%) FOR FAR NORTH AR.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
ANOTHER WEAK SWT WL PASS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ON THU,
BUT SHLD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WX. SFC HIGH PRES WL RMN
IN CONTROL OVER THE MID-SOUTH HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS DURG
THIS TIMEFRAME WL STAY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 45 70 58 73 / 0 10 50 60
CAMDEN AR 50 74 61 79 / 0 40 30 70
HARRISON AR 47 71 58 68 / 0 10 80 90
HOT SPRINGS AR 49 71 61 76 / 0 30 50 80
LITTLE ROCK AR 50 73 62 76 / 0 20 40 70
MONTICELLO AR 53 75 61 78 / 0 30 10 40
MOUNT IDA AR 48 71 60 74 / 0 40 60 90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 46 71 58 69 / 0 10 70 90
NEWPORT AR 45 72 60 75 / 0 0 30 40
PINE BLUFF AR 50 75 61 78 / 0 20 30 50
RUSSELLVILLE AR 48 73 61 74 / 0 30 60 90
SEARCY AR 46 73 60 75 / 0 10 30 50
STUTTGART AR 50 74 61 78 / 0 10 20 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...71
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