401
FXUS64 KLZK 170935
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
335 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH END PRECIPITATION CHANCES DEVELOPING WITH
TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE MAJOR PLAYERS QUITE
CLEARLY, NAMELY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT DOMINATED THESE PAST
FEW DAYS SITTING OVER THE SE CONUS AND A SPRAWLING UPPER TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE BAJA PENINSULA.
PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN A PRONOUNCED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A
SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS BAND OF GOES
EAST IS SHOWING AN EXPANDING AREA OF STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BENEATH THIS DECK SHOW CLOUD HEIGHTS AS LOW AS
2500 TO 3500 FEET WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME AVIATION CONCERNS BUT WILL
LIMIT THE WIDESPREAD FORMATION OF ANY FOG.
AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS THE WESTERN TROUGH DIGS INTO FAR WEST TEXAS
BUT THE HIGHEST POPS/QPF WILL STILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY WESTERN
SECTIONS.
MEANWHILE, A BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY MONDAY
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING/CROSSING THE RED RIVER INTO SW
OKLAHOMA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. GUIDANCE HAS OVERALL BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH CENTRAL KS
AND INTO EASTERN NE BY THE END OF MONDAY. IF THIS PATTERN HOLDS, AND
BASED ON WHERE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE BEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED,
MONDAY WILL HAVE FAIRLY HIGH POP BUT QPF WILL NOT BE ALL THAT HIGH.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE FRONT ITSELF THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BEFORE EXITING SE ARKANSAS AT THE
VERY END OF THE PERIOD. THE MOISTURE SURGING ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF
THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING PRECIPITATION
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE FRONT ITSELF IS PRETTY DYNAMIC INITIALLY BUT WILL BE LOOSING
SOME OF ITS STEAM AS IT CROSSES THE STATE BUT PLENTY OF SHEER/WIND
ENERGY REMAINS. STABILITY IS MINIMAL AT BEST WITH MOST MODELS
KEEPING CAPE UNDER 500 J/KG. A STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE GUST CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT BUT OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE THE GRADIENT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
TUESDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS AT H500, WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVER ARKANSAS. A CLOSED LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE U.S./CANADA
BORDER NEAR MONTANA'S BORDER WITH CANADA THAT WILL QUICKLY EJECT
EASTWARD AND POSITION A NEUTRALLY TILTED TROF AXIS OVER ARKANSAS
WHILE THE CLOSED LOW REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
OF THE CONUS.
AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING ARKANSAS FIXATED ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE CWA AND STATE AS TUESDAY
PROGRESSES.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND RAPID CLEARING SKIES WILL TAKE PLACE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO BOTH LOW AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 10+ DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE COMPARED TO NORMAL
FOR MID TO LATE NOVEMBER AS THE AIRMASS OF DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL
ONLY BEGIN TO FILTER IN BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NOT HAVE
ADEQUATE TIME TO NOTE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL
VALUES UNTIL WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS AT H500, AN UPPER LVL CYCLONE WILL BE TRAVERSING
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN REGION OF THE CONUS. OVER ARKANSAS
DURING THIS PERIOD, NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT
AS AN UPPER LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
REGION OF THE CONUS AND IS PROGGED TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE STATE
BY LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
AT THE SFC, A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL TRACK FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH ARKANSAS, HOWEVER THIS WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT.
IN TURN, THE SECOND COLD FRONT IN TANDEM WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK WILL USHER IN DRIER AND
COLDER AIR.
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH NULL OR ZERO RAIN CHANCES OVER THIS PERIOD
WITH OVERWHELMINGLY CLEAR SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES, BUT ANY CLOUDS WILL BE FEW.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
LIKELY FOR SOME LOCATIONS AT TIMES BY A FEW DEGREES WITH RESPECT TO
BOTH MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO NORMALS OVER THIS PERIOD OF TRANSITIONING INTO LATE
NOVEMBER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AS THE SYSTEM NEARS WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SE BUT
AVERAGE UNDER 10 KNOTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE OCCASIONALLY
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 72 59 73 54 / 10 40 40 80
CAMDEN AR 75 62 80 51 / 30 40 60 60
HARRISON AR 72 59 68 49 / 10 70 90 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 70 62 76 50 / 30 40 70 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 72 63 78 55 / 20 30 50 70
MONTICELLO AR 76 62 80 58 / 20 20 30 90
MOUNT IDA AR 71 60 74 48 / 40 50 80 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 72 60 69 52 / 10 70 90 50
NEWPORT AR 71 61 74 54 / 10 30 20 90
PINE BLUFF AR 75 62 78 55 / 20 30 40 90
RUSSELLVILLE AR 72 62 74 50 / 30 60 80 30
SEARCY AR 72 60 75 53 / 10 20 40 80
STUTTGART AR 73 62 76 56 / 10 20 30 90
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...56
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