998
FXUS64 KLZK 180533
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1133 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS WEST-
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON,
SPREADING INTO NORTH-NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TODAY
AND IN THE 70S/LOWER 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GOM
AND THE EASTERN U.S. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SW REGION AND A
STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP THERE TODAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN
AND SHIFTS EASTWARD, THE STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. TOWARDS THE MIDWEST REGION THROUGH LATE MONDAY
AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
ARKANSAS LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST, MAINLY ACROSS
WEST, CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE
STATE, PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
TUESDAY, WHEN THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WL BE TRANSITIONING FM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE PD, AS A CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES FM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER CDFNT WL SWEEP
THRU THE FA TUE NIGHT AND WED, FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
WEAK SWT WL PASS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ON THU, BRINGING
WITH IT AN INCRS IN CLOUDS. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WL TAKE CONTROL OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD.
OVERALL, TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART ARE EXPECTED TO AT OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH PERIODS OF SHRA. TS IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 60 74 54 71 / 40 50 90 0
CAMDEN AR 61 79 52 74 / 40 80 80 0
HARRISON AR 59 68 50 66 / 80 90 40 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 61 75 50 73 / 60 90 60 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 63 77 56 73 / 40 70 90 0
MONTICELLO AR 61 79 58 76 / 20 40 100 0
MOUNT IDA AR 60 74 48 73 / 70 100 40 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 60 70 51 68 / 80 90 70 0
NEWPORT AR 61 75 57 71 / 30 30 100 0
PINE BLUFF AR 61 78 55 74 / 30 50 90 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 61 74 50 72 / 70 90 50 0
SEARCY AR 61 75 54 73 / 30 50 90 0
STUTTGART AR 62 77 57 73 / 20 40 100 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...51
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