221
FXUS64 KLZK 181239
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
639 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH AN
UPPER HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING OVER ARKANSAS WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, ONCE THESE SHOWERS EXIT INTO MISSOURI THERE WILL BE A DRY
PERIOD THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH
THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED UP TO 35 MPH IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE STATE FOR TUESDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S AND IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S TUESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
AND IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
AN UPPER LVL CLOSED LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OF THE CONUS AND TRACK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN REGION OF THE
CONUS TO END THE WORKWEEK KEEPING PREDOMINATELY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER ARKANSAS AT H500. INTO THE WEEKEND AND END OF THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD AT H500, A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN REGION OF THE CONUS, THEN IS PROGGED TO BECOME ZONAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND OVER ARKANSAS.
AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A QUICK
MOVING DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT JUST PRIOR TO THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECT THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TO INCLUDE FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
NIL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY, A DRIER AND COLDER
AIRMASS OVERALL WILL OCCUPY THE STATE OF ARKANSAS.
TEMPERATURES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES AND
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE TO A FEW DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE COMPARED TO NORMAL TEMPERATURE VALUES FOR
TRANSITIONING INTO LATE-NOVEMBER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARKANSAS
TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN. SOUTH WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT AND RAIN TO
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 74 54 71 44 / 60 70 0 0
CAMDEN AR 79 51 75 45 / 70 90 0 0
HARRISON AR 69 49 67 39 / 40 50 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 76 49 73 44 / 60 70 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 78 55 74 47 / 70 90 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 79 58 76 49 / 60 70 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 75 47 74 41 / 40 50 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 70 50 68 41 / 70 90 0 0
NEWPORT AR 75 55 71 45 / 30 40 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 78 55 74 47 / 60 70 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 75 49 73 42 / 60 70 0 0
SEARCY AR 75 52 73 44 / 60 70 0 0
STUTTGART AR 77 56 73 47 / 40 50 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...51
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