626
FXUS64 KLZK 182319
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
519 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER KS THIS AFTN,
WITH AN ASSOCD CDFNT EXTENDING ACRS EASTERN OK AND NORTHEAST TX.
CONT TO MONITOR A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN AR, WITH
30 TO 40 KNOT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY.
CLOUDS AND RAIN HAVE KEPT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S, WITH READINGS WELL INTO 70S ELSEWHERE.
CAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH OVERALL TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FNT ACRS THE FA THRU TNGT. THE BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO
BE SITUATED OVR CENTRAL AR ARND 00Z THIS EVENING, THEN EAST OF THE
FA SOON AFTER 19/06Z. SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
INTO THIS EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF WIND ENERGY ASSOCD WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THE MAIN CONCERN WL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A HIGHLY
SHEARED/LOW INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT RMNS IN PLACE ACRS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AR, SO AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
MUCH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WL ADVECT INTO THE NATURAL STATE
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THANKS TO WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS. WIND SPEEDS WL
WL DIMINISH LATER TNGT AND WED AS THE STORM SYS TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY CDFNT WL SWEEP THRU THE
FA LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT, BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR.
HIGHS TUE WL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S. READINGS ON WED
WL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER, RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER ARKANSAS DURING THE
EXTENDED TERM. AT THE SURFACE, COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO ARKANSAS
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TERM, AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
SOUTHWARD. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS, AND HIGHS DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 50'S. BY
SATURDAY WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH, BRINGING A WARMING
TREND THAT WILL LAST THRU THE END OF THE EXTENDED TERM.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
A LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH THEIR WAY THROUGH THE STATE.
THIS LINE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND WILL
LIKELY PUSH OUT OF THE STATE AROUND 19/06Z. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED, HOWEVER, PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SHOWERS. NOT MUCH THUNDER IS BEING OBSERVED ALTHOUGH A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 53 72 44 60 / 100 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 50 75 45 64 / 90 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 48 68 39 55 / 50 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 49 74 44 61 / 60 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 54 74 47 62 / 90 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 56 76 49 64 / 90 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 47 74 41 62 / 30 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 50 68 41 56 / 90 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 53 71 45 59 / 100 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 53 74 47 63 / 100 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 49 73 42 62 / 60 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 51 73 44 62 / 100 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 55 73 47 60 / 90 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...73
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