495
FXUS64 KLZK 190923
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
323 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY. ANOTHER
UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY.
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS
THROUGH EARLY MORNING. A SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
ARKANSAS TODAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THIS FRONT WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND BRING IN COLDER AIR.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S AND IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 50S AND IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A CLOSED LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OF THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN REGION OF THE CONUS AND WILL COERCE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER ARKANSAS. INTO THE WEEKEND, THE CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN REGION OF THE CONUS ALONG WITH THE RIDGE
BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN REGION OF THE CONUS AND SLIDE
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINING OVER ARKANSAS. INTO THE LATE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK, THE UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL RAPIDLY DE-AMPLIFY
BECOMING ZONAL WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A SWT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
OVERALL FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL APPROACH OVER ARKANSAS TO END THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
AT THE SFC, A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
WITH A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS OCCUPYING ARKANSAS INTO THE
WEEKEND BRINGING BOTH LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL VALUES FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE PERIOD OF THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. INTO SUNDAY AND THE EARLY WORKWEEK, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE CWA, WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THAT WILL ASSIST ADVECTING IN A WARMER AND MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE
CWA AND IN RESPONSE LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH LEVELS 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE COMPARED TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
CWA IN LATE-NOVEMBER.
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY LIMITED POP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE, BUT CONFIDENCE OVERALL DOES
REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW; HOWEVER, AT A MINIMUM NOTICEABLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE CWA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND MOVING EAST.
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. CLEAR SKIES ARE OVERSPREADING THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL SECTIONS, WITH DENSE FOG AT
HOT AND ADF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF
LIFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 72 45 60 39 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 72 46 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 68 39 55 38 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 73 45 61 39 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 73 48 62 41 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 74 50 64 40 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 74 41 61 36 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 69 41 56 38 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 71 47 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 73 48 63 40 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 72 43 62 38 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 71 45 61 36 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 72 48 61 41 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...51
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