680
FXUS64 KLZK 202345
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
545 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
TEMPERATURES ARE MAXING OUT IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON, A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THROUGH THE
PERIOD, EXPECT DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR/SLIGHTLY-BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AN UPPER LOW AND A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE FROM THE
MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGIONS
TONIGHT, MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BEHIND
THESE SYSTEMS, UPPER RIDGING WITH NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
STATES. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL STATES
ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY, REINFORCING NEAR-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND FROM THE WEST, ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME TIGHTER AND WIND SPEEDS WILL
GET A BIT BREEZY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. GUSTS 20-30 MPH ARE
FORECAST THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, AN H500 CYCLONE WILL BE SLOWLY WORKING
ITS WAY OFFSHORE BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC. IN ITS WAKE,
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NW ACROSS ARKANSAS AND NEARBY
AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY. ACROSS THE WEST, H500 RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO
BUILD EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.
AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
PROVIDING ONE MORE DAY WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE STATE SATURDAY MORNING.
BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE SHIFTING MORE EASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY. AT THE SFC, RIDGING WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
STATE WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL S-SW FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE.
A NEW H500 CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE US/CA BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM MON-TUE WITH ITS ACCOMPANYING TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH TOWARD AR. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE STATE FROM THE NORTH AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN. SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE COULD
SEE TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT WARMER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS AND
ASSOCIATED WIND GUSTS HAVE BEGUN TO RELAX THIS EVENING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE FURTHER OVERNIGHT. WIND SHEAR IS MENTIONED AT
ALL TERMINALS STARTING ACROSS NRN SITES NEAR 00Z AND SPREADING
SWRD INTO CNTRL/SRN SITES BY 10/12Z TIME FRAME ON THURS. WIND
SHEAR SHOULD BECOME LESS INFLUENTIAL AS SURFACE WINDS AND WIND
GUSTS INCREASE THURS MID/LATE MORNING. NW WINDS MAY GUST BETWEEN
20-25 KTS AT ALL LOCATIONS BEYOND 15/16Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 36 56 34 55 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 34 64 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 36 51 31 53 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 36 61 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 39 61 38 59 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 39 64 38 59 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 35 62 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 36 51 32 53 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 36 55 34 54 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 37 63 35 58 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 35 60 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 34 58 33 57 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 37 59 35 56 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...70
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