453
FXUS64 KLZK 211143
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
543 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND TO THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE SPREADS THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS TODAY AND AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
RETURN. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER DRY AIR TO THE STATE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS FRIDAY WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE STATE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S AND IN
THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S TO THE MID 30S AND IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PD WL BE NOTED BY INTERMITTENT H500
RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL US, AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DEPARTS THE N/ERN
US, AND A SEMI-CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC-N/W BEGINS TO PROGRESS
INTO THE MEAN UPPER FLOW REGIME. LOCALLY, WEAKENING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WL BE IN PLACE, AND MOVING EWRD AS UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO DE-
AMPLIFY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WL YIELD
NEW SFC CYCLONIC DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CNTRL GREAT PLAINS, W/ WAA
ENSUING OVER THE LOCAL FA BY SUN.
THRU THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME, TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARDS
ABOVE-NRML READINGS, W/ HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S EXPECTED AGAIN, AT
LEAST BRIEFLY. THRU THE DAY MON, THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WL QUICKLY ADVANCE N/EWRD, W/ A TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO SWEEP
THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS AND LOCAL FA. PRECIP CHCS LOOK TO STAY
ISOLATED TO PORTIONS OF N/ERN AR MON NIGHT INTO TUES W/ THIS SYSTEM.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS CDFRNT, COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS ARE SET
TO PREVAIL WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES RETURNING HEADING TOWARDS
THANKSGIVING AND THE END OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC PREVAILING. WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING, SUBSIDING BY
LATE MORNING AS SURFACE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED GUSTS INCREASE
DURING THE DAYTIME. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH WINDS SUBSIDING AFTER 00Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 55 34 55 35 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 65 33 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 50 30 53 33 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 61 36 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 61 37 58 38 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 64 37 59 38 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 62 34 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 51 32 53 32 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 54 35 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 62 35 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 60 34 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 58 33 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 59 35 56 36 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...51
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