689
FXUS64 KLZK 150545 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1145 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2024
OVERALL, AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AS ONE WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVES OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND
ANOTHER ROUND ON THE WAY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SHOWERS HAVE BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD AS THEY WERE EARLIER IN THE
DAY WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL, IT SEEMS MANY AREAS RECEIVED
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH A WIDESPREAD HALF-INCH TO INCH FALLING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE STATE. ONCE
AGAIN, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ROUND AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO HALF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT RAINFALL COULD BE MORE SCATTERED RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD WITH THE ROUND OF RAIN COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE STATE AND
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2024
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH VERY MILD CONDITIONS/WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AND A FRONT STALLED OVER THE REGION IN ZONAL
FLOW. SURROUNDING THE FRONT, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT.
WE WILL BE AWAITING A SHORTWAVE FROM THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY. AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, THE FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH, AND
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BROADEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS.
ONCE THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL GO
THROUGH, AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH OUT OF CANADA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. RAIN WILL END, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
TURN COLDER. READINGS BY THURSDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE,
BUT NOTHING EXTREME.
IT APPEARS A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON FRIDAY.
LITTLE/NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AIR MASS
THAT FOLLOWS SHOULD BE COLDER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR, BUT THE BRUNT OF
THE COLD AIR APPEARS TO GO TO OUR NORTH/EAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2024
SFC FRNT WAS LAST ANALYZED ACRS THE N/WRN PORTION OF THE FA, W/
IFR CONDNS OBSERVED ALONG AND E/SE OF THE FEATURE, ENCOMPASSING A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FA AS OF 15/06Z. EXPECT VFR CONDNS TO PREVAIL
OVER FAR N/WRN AND WRN AR WHERE DRIER CONDNS CURRENTLY EXIST TO
THE W-N/W OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRNT. ELSEWHERE, IFR TO SUB-IFR
CONDNS ARE FCST THRU THE OVERNIGHT PD, AND INTO SUN MRNG, W/
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EXPECTED. VISBYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
THE S/E OF THIS FRNT DURING THE DAYTIME SUN, BUT IFR CIGS WL LKLY
PERSIST. S/ERLY WINDS WL RESUME ON SUN, W/ ISOLTD PRECIP EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER CNTRL AR, AND ADVANCE NWRD THRU THE AFTN HRS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 52 45 62 56 / 100 10 10 90
CAMDEN AR 60 54 68 58 / 100 30 40 20
HARRISON AR 59 38 62 54 / 100 0 0 90
HOT SPRINGS AR 57 50 64 58 / 100 0 30 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 55 51 64 59 / 100 20 30 70
MONTICELLO AR 61 56 69 61 / 90 60 60 10
MOUNT IDA AR 63 45 67 57 / 100 0 30 80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 53 38 59 53 / 100 0 0 90
NEWPORT AR 51 49 62 57 / 100 20 10 90
PINE BLUFF AR 54 53 67 59 / 100 40 40 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 58 43 63 56 / 100 0 10 90
SEARCY AR 52 48 63 57 / 100 10 10 80
STUTTGART AR 55 53 65 60 / 100 40 20 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ005>008-014>017-
024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>064-066>068-121>123-130-
137-138-140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.
SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...70/72
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