976
FXUS64 KLZK 150853
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
253 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
SHORT TERM KEY MESSAGES
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATER MORNING
HOURS TODAY.
A FEW ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT (SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING),
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS, WITH THE MAIN THREAT
INCLUDING HAIL.
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN TO
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN OVER THE OUACHITA AND BOSTON MOUNTAIN
REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH SOME ISOLATED FLOODING
ISSUES POSSIBLE.
--
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WAS EVIDENT ACRS MUCH OF THE FA EARLY THIS MRNG
VIA GOES NIGHT FOG IMGRY AND AREA SFC OBS. A SFC STATIONARY FRNT
WAS LAST ANALYZED ACRS THE CNTRL THIRD OF THE STATE, DRAPED FM S/W
TO N/E, W/ CLEARER AND IMPROVED CONDNS NOTED OVER WRN TO N/WRN
AR. THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PD, DENSE FOG WL PERSIST
OVER THE S/ERN HALF OF THE STATE, ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRNT,
AND LKLY LASTING WELL INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS FOLLOWING SUNRISE SUN
MRNG. AREA VISBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY THE LATER MRNG TO EARLY AFTN
HRS, W/ LINGERING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN TO NOTE AS WAA AND N/WRD
MIXING OVERTAKES THE BNDRY SUN AFTN. SOME GREATER COVG OF ISOLTD
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE SEEN ACRS FAR SRN AR THRU THE LATER AFTN TO
EVNG HRS WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY IS PROGGED, THOUGH THE SEVERE
WX THREAT W/ THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY NEGLIGIBLE.
A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WX IS FCST ACRS PORTIONS
OF WRN TO N/WRN AR LATER SUN NIGHT TO EARLY MON MRNG. ALOFT, A
BROADER, LONGWAVE H500 TROF WL BE MOVING ACRS THE NRN CNTRL PLAINS
THRU THE DAY SUN, W/ WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW OVERSPREADING THE CNTRL
US. NEW SFC LEE CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLE,
WHICH WL KEEP MODEST SRLY FLOW AND WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN PLACE
ACRS THE SRN CNTRL US. SOMEWHAT SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD MOISTURE
RETURN LOOKS TO MANIFEST SUN THRU MON, AS A PLUME OF SFC TD'S IN
EXCESS OF 60F SHOULD EXTEND AS FAR N AS CNTRL AR... ALONG AND TO
THE N OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR....AS EARLY AS 00Z SUN NIGHT.
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT FM THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF SHOULD PROMOTE
THE OVERLAP OF INCRSG BULK SHEAR, AND BRIEFLY SURFACE-BASED, TO
MAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE, W/ HREF MEAN
MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ACRS WRN TO N/WRN AR BY 16/06Z
SUN NIGHT. THE GREATEST FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO
WRN TO N/WRN AR, W/ SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PROGGED THRU
THE OVERNIGHT PD ACRS THE REGION. AMPLE SHEAR COULD SUPPORT SOME
BRIEFLY STRONG AND ORGANIZED CELLS, W/ THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING
HAIL, AS OUTLINED BY THE SPC D1 MRGL CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
IN ADDITION TO AN ISOLATED AND CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
SUN NIGHT, SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
PORTIONS OF WRN TO N/WRN AR, MAINLY OVER THE TOPOGRAPHY OF THE
OUACHITA AND BOSTON MTNS, WHERE TRAINING CELLS COULD OCCUR.
TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN MOISTURE PROGS, SUCH AS THE 15/00Z NAEFS MEAN
PW AND IWVT ALSO SUGGEST GREATER THAN 90TH PERCENTILE READINGS...RELATIVE
TO CLIMATOLOGY...ACRS THE N/WRN HALF OF THE FA B/W 16/00Z TO
16/12Z.
MUCH OF THE STATE SAW A STEADY SOAKING RAIN THRU
THE DAY SAT, W/ 24 HR MRMS QPE OF AROUND ONE INCH TO ONE AND A
QUARTER INCH FOR MUCH OF THE FA. CURRENT QPF PROGS INCLUDING MEAN
15/00Z HREF AND NBM GUIDANCE, SUGGEST ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF UP TO ONE TO TWO INCHES ACRS THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS, W/
90TH PERCENTILE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
TWO TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES...THOUGH THIS SCENARIO SHOULD BE
CONSIDERED THE MOST REASONABLE HIGH-END OUTCOME (E.G., 90% OF ALL
OUTCOMES FELL BELOW THIS THRESHOLD). NEVERTHELESS, A CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT IS FCST FOR SOME EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER A PRE-
CONDITIONED AREA, AND SOME LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES COULD ARISE THRU
THE OVERNIGHT PD SUN-MON.
THRU THE DAY MON, ANOTHER RD OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WL BE
POSSIBLE AS A TRAILING CDFRNT ASCTD W/ A GREAT LAKES SFC LOW MOVES
THRU THE FA. BUOYANCY PROGS AND MODEST SHEAR INVOF THE
AFOREMENTIONED PASSING UPPER TROF SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME ISOLATED, BUT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRNT. THE MAIN HAZARD WL STILL BE HAIL W/
THIS ACTIVITY, IF ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DOES MANIFEST.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY WHILE ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE COUNTRY. AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE WEST.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TAIL END OF THE ACTIVE PATTERN WE
HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING. A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS, AND COLDER AND DRIER AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S AND THURSDAY HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 40S AND 50S. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
BE AROUND HALF AN INCH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN COOLER NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2024
SFC FRNT WAS LAST ANALYZED ACRS THE N/WRN PORTION OF THE FA, W/
IFR CONDNS OBSERVED ALONG AND E/SE OF THE FEATURE, ENCOMPASSING A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FA AS OF 15/06Z. EXPECT VFR CONDNS TO PREVAIL
OVER FAR N/WRN AND WRN AR WHERE DRIER CONDNS CURRENTLY EXIST TO
THE W-N/W OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRNT. ELSEWHERE, IFR TO SUB-IFR
CONDNS ARE FCST THRU THE OVERNIGHT PD, AND INTO SUN MRNG, W/
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EXPECTED. VISBYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
THE S/E OF THIS FRNT DURING THE DAYTIME SUN, BUT IFR CIGS WL LKLY
PERSIST. S/ERLY WINDS WL RESUME ON SUN, W/ ISOLTD PRECIP EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER CNTRL AR, AND ADVANCE NWRD THRU THE AFTN HRS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 63 56 66 40 / 10 70 90 10
CAMDEN AR 68 59 70 53 / 50 10 80 60
HARRISON AR 63 54 63 36 / 0 80 70 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 66 58 67 47 / 30 60 90 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 65 60 68 47 / 20 50 90 30
MONTICELLO AR 69 61 71 54 / 50 10 80 70
MOUNT IDA AR 68 57 68 45 / 30 70 90 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 61 53 65 36 / 0 80 80 0
NEWPORT AR 63 57 66 42 / 10 60 100 10
PINE BLUFF AR 67 60 70 50 / 40 20 90 50
RUSSELLVILLE AR 65 56 68 42 / 10 70 90 10
SEARCY AR 65 57 66 43 / 20 60 100 20
STUTTGART AR 65 60 68 48 / 20 30 90 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARZ005>008-
014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>064-066>068-
121>123-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.
SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...70
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