677
FXUS64 KLZK 160649 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1249 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED
OVER THE AREA AND WILL MOVE BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN
CAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG OR HIGHER IN NORTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL
ARKANSAS A SOME LLWS...ISOLATED AREAS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
MONDAY. MAIN HAZARDS WITH STORMS WOULD BE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
ADDITIONALLY, AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN ACROSS THE STATE.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN STALL SOUTH OF THE
STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE
STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A HALF-INCH
TO AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE LARGE SCALE UPPER AIR PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING A FRONTAL
NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS ARKANSAS WILL SHIFT AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE
PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED, ALLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO COMPLETELY EXCHANGE THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. BEGINNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEDNESDAY'S STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST DIRECTLY OVER ARKANSAS, THIS WILL FINALLY
DRAG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS GIVEN US A SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL SINCE FRIDAY NIGHT OUT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO, CLEARING
OUT THE RESERVOIR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FUELING THE PRECEDING DAYS
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY, THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
ARKANSAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY SUPPORT FREE CONVECTION, THE AVAILABILITY OF
THIS CONVECTIVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND UNDERCUT BY THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT EFFECTIVELY REMOVING ANY CHANCE FOR SURFACE
BASED THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED THREATS. THERE MAY BE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGER ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM CORES, BUT THE HAIL THREAT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING CURRENTLY LOOKS SMALLER THAN THE HAIL THREAT TONIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND ENHANCED RAINFALL PRODUCTION ALLOWING POCKETS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MIX IN WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE AS A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS BUILDS IN ON ARKANSAS
ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING WITH IT SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES, BUT NOTABLY COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY, BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNINGS IN 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH ON FRIDAY WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AND DRY
AIR, BUT THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACTUALLY REPRESENTS A SPOKE OF A MUCH
LARGER UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
AND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES NEXT WEEKEND. DEPENDING ON
EXACTLY WHERE THAT LARGE UPPER LOW ROTATES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA,
IT COULD OPEN THE DOOR TO A SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING INTO
ARKANSAS LATE ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS LARGE UPPER LOW,
COLLOQUIALLY REFERRED TO AS "THE POLAR VORTEX" IS WELL KNOWN FOR
DRIVING ARCTIC AIR OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE UNITED STATE.
AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SIGNALS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN AN ARCTIC INTRUSION OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE RIDGING
PROMOTED SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. WITH ARKANSAS FINDING ITSELF JUST EAST
OF THE CENTER PART OF THE COUNTRY, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH, IF ANY, OF THE ARCTIC AIR WE WILL
GET. PROBABILISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES VARIABILITY OF HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE STATISTICAL INNER QUARTILE RANGE
(BETWEEN 25 AND 75 PERCENT) OF 15 DEGREES F, SO YOU CAN EXPECT THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF TO CONTINUE TO VARY PRETTY WILDLY IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS. ON AVERAGE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
COOLER FOR US THAN THE GFS, BUT REALLY, WE'LL JUST HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE START OF NEXT WEEK TO HAVE A
BETTER IDEA OF WHICH WAY MODELS ARE TRENDING WITH THE ARCTIC AIR.
THERE IS OBVIOUSLY QUITE A BIT OF ATTENTION ON THIS PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST AS THE POTENTIAL ARCTIC INTRUSION COULD HOLD IN THROUGH
CHRISTMAS EVE. MODELS ARE AT LEAST CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING THE
ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO ARKANSAS DRY, SO WE DON'T HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS ABOUT WINTRY PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT SOME MOISTURE RETURNING THE
EVENING OF CHRISTMAS EVE OR CHRISTMAS DAY MORNING, BUT THIS WOULD
COME WITH SOME FAIRLY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION FAVORING A COLD
RAIN OVER WINTRY PRECIPITATION. WE'LL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
EXTENDED FORECAST AND EXPECT VARIABILITY TO DECREASE MARKEDLY AS
WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
CAVANAUGH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDNS WERE NOTED AROUND THE FA, W/ REDUCED VISBYS
ONGOING ACRS CNTRL TO N/ERN TERMINALS. A SFC WRMFRNT WAS LAST
ANALYZED OVER CNTRL AR, NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR, AND SHOULD CONT TO
MOVE NWRD THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WAS ONGOING ACRS THE N/WRN HALF OF THE FA, AND
COVG OF PRECIP, INCLUDING TS, IS EXPECTED TO INCRS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HRS. VISBYS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE NEAR DAYBREAK, OR WHERE
RAIN IS ONGOING. MON, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRNT WL THEN GET
OVERTAKEN BY AN ADVANCING CDFRNT, DRIVING ANOTHER SWEEPING LINE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THRU THE AFTN HRS. LLWS WL ALSO PERSIST
ACRS CNTRL TO NRN TERMINALS THRU 14-15Z MON MRNG.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 68 40 57 47 / 90 0 20 70
CAMDEN AR 72 53 68 55 / 70 60 30 60
HARRISON AR 64 37 57 41 / 80 0 10 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 68 49 61 51 / 80 30 30 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 69 48 60 52 / 90 30 30 70
MONTICELLO AR 72 55 68 57 / 70 70 40 50
MOUNT IDA AR 69 48 63 49 / 90 20 40 70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 66 37 55 43 / 80 0 10 60
NEWPORT AR 67 41 56 48 / 90 10 20 70
PINE BLUFF AR 71 50 64 55 / 80 50 30 70
RUSSELLVILLE AR 69 44 58 48 / 80 0 20 60
SEARCY AR 68 44 58 48 / 90 10 20 70
STUTTGART AR 68 49 61 54 / 80 40 30 70
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ARZ007-
008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-054-055-123-223.
SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...70/72
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