797
FXUS64 KLZK 162043
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
243 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING ITS WAY THRU THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
MENA, THRU RUSSELLVILLE, AND ONWARDS TOWARD JONESBORO. MORNING
SOUNDINGS INDICATED ELEVATED CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT THERE WAS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CIN IN THE LOWER LAYERS. ONE STORM IN PARTICULAR DID BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
OTHERWISE NOTHING ELSE HAS GROWN TOO STRONG. I WOULD NOT RULE OUT
ANOTHER STORM OR TWO GROWING TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL OR
40 MPH WINDS, BUT THE RISK SHOULD BE RATHER LOW.
THINGS WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT ANOTHER
REINFORCING FRONT AND UPPER TROF WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO GO UP TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH
LIKELY CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.
SOME AREAS OF FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH IN RAIN-FREE
AREAS, AND LATER TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
BET THAT FOG MAY RETURN IN A WIDER AREA TOMORROW NIGHT IN AREAS THAT
ARE RAIN-FREE. NOT SURE IF IT WILL BECOME DENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ANY ADVISORIES, BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE AREA
AS RAINFALL GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A PRETTY SETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN, PROMOTING CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL USHER IN NW FLOW KEEPING COOL AND DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. WITH
THAT SAID, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNDER THAT HIGH
PRESSURE MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 41 56 47 56 / 0 10 80 30
CAMDEN AR 55 67 55 65 / 80 30 70 60
HARRISON AR 37 56 41 48 / 0 0 50 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 49 59 51 60 / 30 20 90 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 49 58 53 60 / 40 30 90 40
MONTICELLO AR 57 69 58 65 / 80 40 60 70
MOUNT IDA AR 48 61 48 60 / 20 20 80 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 37 55 43 52 / 0 10 60 20
NEWPORT AR 43 56 50 57 / 10 20 80 40
PINE BLUFF AR 52 63 54 63 / 70 30 80 60
RUSSELLVILLE AR 44 57 49 58 / 10 10 70 20
SEARCY AR 46 56 50 58 / 20 10 80 40
STUTTGART AR 51 60 54 61 / 60 20 90 50
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....73
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