797
FXUS64 KLZK 170631 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1231 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING ITS WAY THRU THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
MENA, THRU RUSSELLVILLE, AND ONWARDS TOWARD JONESBORO. MORNING
SOUNDINGS INDICATED ELEVATED CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT THERE WAS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CIN IN THE LOWER LAYERS. ONE STORM IN PARTICULAR DID BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
OTHERWISE NOTHING ELSE HAS GROWN TOO STRONG. I WOULD NOT RULE OUT
ANOTHER STORM OR TWO GROWING TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL OR
40 MPH WINDS, BUT THE RISK SHOULD BE RATHER LOW.
THINGS WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT ANOTHER
REINFORCING FRONT AND UPPER TROF WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO GO UP TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH
LIKELY CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.
SOME AREAS OF FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH IN RAIN-FREE
AREAS, AND LATER TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
BET THAT FOG MAY RETURN IN A WIDER AREA TOMORROW NIGHT IN AREAS THAT
ARE RAIN-FREE. NOT SURE IF IT WILL BECOME DENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ANY ADVISORIES, BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE AREA
AS RAINFALL GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A PRETTY SETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN, PROMOTING CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL USHER IN NW FLOW KEEPING COOL AND DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. WITH
THAT SAID, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNDER THAT HIGH
PRESSURE MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
BAND OF BROKEN PRECIP CONTINUES TO MOVE ACRS FAR SRN AR AS OF
17/06Z. THRU THE OVERNIGHT PD, EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO LINGER AND
EVENTUALLY WANE NEAR 17/12Z. MAINLY VFR CONDNS, UNDER BKN TO OVC
MID-LVL CLOUD COVER WL PREVAIL THRU MON NIGHT AND INTO TUES MRNG.
CIGS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR LVLS AT MOST AREA TERMINALS, AND
INTERMITTENT IFR CONDNS MAY BE OBSERVED AS WELL. WINDS ON TUES WL
TURN TO BCM SRLY, W/ ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THRU THE DAY ACRS
THE FA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 56 47 56 32 / 10 80 30 0
CAMDEN AR 67 55 65 35 / 30 70 60 10
HARRISON AR 56 41 48 30 / 0 50 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 59 51 60 34 / 20 90 40 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 58 53 60 35 / 30 90 40 0
MONTICELLO AR 69 58 65 38 / 40 60 70 10
MOUNT IDA AR 61 48 60 32 / 20 80 30 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 55 43 52 30 / 10 60 20 0
NEWPORT AR 56 50 57 33 / 20 80 40 0
PINE BLUFF AR 63 54 63 35 / 30 80 60 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 57 49 58 33 / 10 70 20 0
SEARCY AR 56 50 58 33 / 10 80 40 0
STUTTGART AR 60 54 61 35 / 20 90 50 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...46
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