525
FXUS64 KLZK 171149 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
549 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
RECENT COMPOSITE RADAR IMGRY DEPICTED SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ONGOING ACRS MUCH OF SRN AR NEAR A NOW STATIONARY FRNT THAT
MOVED THRU THE REGION EARLIER MON EVNG AS A CDFRNT. THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PD, THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY 17/12Z.
THRU THE DAY TODAY, THIS STATIONARY FRNT SHOULD STAY POSITIONED ACRS
THE SRN THIRD OF THE FA, W/ GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDNS PREVAILING. AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT, FOLLOWING THE FROPA ON MON, A FAIRLY MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WL BE IN PLACE ACRS THE STATE TODAY, W/ DRIER AND COOLER
AIR ACRS NRN TO CNTRL AR, WHILE FAR SRN AR WL STILL SEE TEMPERATURES
CLIMB TO THE UPPER 60S, TO EVEN LOW 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS, W/
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S. SOME ISOLTD SHOWERS WL LKLY BE SEEN INVOF
THE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY, PARTICULARLY AS SRLY FLOW
RESUMES, TO THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRNT THIS AFTN.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY WED MRNG, A STRONG SYNOPTIC
CDFRNT, ASCTD W/ ELONGATED SFC CYCLONIC FLOW MVG ACRS THE CNTRL
US, SHOULD START TO SWEEP THRU THE FA. ALOFT, AN H500 JET
STREAK/VORTICITY MAX IS PROGGED TO DIG QUICKLY INTO THE BASAL
REGION OF MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKY MTNS,
RESULTING IN ELONGATED AND POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGHING ACRS THE
SRN CNTRL US THRU THE OVERNIGHT PD TUES. THIS WL FOSTER INCRSG
BULK SHEAR, AND OVERSPREAD ANTECEDENT BUOYANCY, W/ MUCAPE PROGS IN
EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFRNT.
MAIN TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO OCCUR NEAR 18/06Z
TUES NIGHT, BASED ON MEAN 17/00Z HREF TIMING PROGS FOR
REFLECTIVITY EXCEEDANCE THRESHOLDS.
AS DEVELOPMENT GETS GOING, INCRSG COVG OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE ADVANCING FRNT IS ANTICIPATED, W/ A MARGINAL AND
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. MAINLY
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PROGGED IN THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT, AT
LEAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK ON WED MRNG. A TRANSITION FM ELEVATED TO SFC
BASED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATER MRNG HRS, HOWEVER, BASED
ON CURRENT TIMING GUIDANCE, THIS WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL ACRS FAR S/ERN AR WED MRNG. GIVEN THE
NOCTURNAL TIMING, AND PREDOMINANTLY ELEVATED STATURE OF EXPECTED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, THE MAIN THREATS WITH STORMS WOULD INCLUDE
SEVERE HAIL, AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS IF STRONGER
CONSOLIDATED COLD POOLS ARISE, THOUGH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS
MAY INCRS FOLLOWING DAY BREAK AND THE AFOREMENTIONED POSSIBILITY OF
TRANSITIONING SFC BASED STORMS.
BEYOND 18/12Z WED MRNG, THE CDFRNT AND ASCTD PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR THE
STATE PROMPTLY TO THE S/E NEAR THE EARLY AFTN, W/ GUSTY NRLY WINDS
PREVAILING THRU THE DAY. COOLER AND DRIER CONDNS WL ENSUE POST FRNT,
W/ MUCH OF NRN AR SEEING TEMPS FALL TO FREEZING LVLS TO THE UPPER
20S, WHILE ELSEWHERE ACRS CNTRL TO SRN AR, TEMPS WL LINGER IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
IN THE WEST MOVES TO THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY BEFORE FLATTENING OUT AND NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL INTO MONDAY.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER ARKANSAS FOR THE WEEKEND. VERY COOL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
RETURN MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT TO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
LINGERING OVERNIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY WAS NOTED ACRS SRN AR ON
RECENT RADAR IMGRY, EXPECT PRECIP COVG TO WANE BEYOND 17/12Z. THRU
THE DAY TODAY, AREA TERMINALS WL START AT VFR CONDNS, BUT
DETERIORATION TO MVFR LEVELS IS EXPECTED BY THE EARLY AFTN, AS A
LINGERING STATIONARY STARTS TO MOVE NWRD. CONDNS ARE FCST TO
DETERIORATE TO IFR LVLS OVER CNTRL TO SRN AR BY THE EVNG HRS, AND
ACRS NRN AR NEAR 18/06Z. SCTD VCSH IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
FA THRU THE DAY, BEFORE A STRONG CDFRNT MOVES THRU FM THE N/W,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY RELATED TO THE CDFRNT WL BE LATE IN THE PD. HAVE INCLUDED
PROB30S FOR NOW, W/ TIMING REFINEMENT EXPECTED IN THE NEW FEW
TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 55 49 56 31 / 30 80 20 0
CAMDEN AR 69 55 64 35 / 30 80 60 0
HARRISON AR 56 42 49 29 / 0 30 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 60 51 59 34 / 30 90 30 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 57 54 59 35 / 20 90 40 0
MONTICELLO AR 69 58 65 37 / 30 70 80 0
MOUNT IDA AR 62 48 59 32 / 40 80 20 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 55 44 51 29 / 10 40 10 0
NEWPORT AR 57 50 56 31 / 30 90 30 0
PINE BLUFF AR 64 55 62 34 / 20 90 70 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 57 48 57 32 / 20 70 10 0
SEARCY AR 56 50 58 32 / 30 80 40 0
STUTTGART AR 62 55 60 34 / 20 90 60 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...72
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