624
FXUS64 KLZK 172029
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
229 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THRU THE AREA BECAME STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN AR THIS MORNING AND HAS STARTED TO DRIFT A BIT BACK TO THE
NORTH THRU THE DAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND OVERRUNING HAS CREATED
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF
THE STATE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WILL QUICKLY DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
THE BIG WEATHER DRIVER AT THE MOMENT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL RAPIDLY PUSH INTO THE
STATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
LIFT FROM THE FRONT AND THE APPROACHING FRONT, COMBINED WITH MODEST
UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY, WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TONIGHT ALONG WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. SPC HAS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK, AND THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE.
THE POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
STATE, BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER THRU THE DAY TOMORROW
UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
AREA AS A CUT OF LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE AND HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PRETTY
SETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN,
PROMOTING CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN NW
FLOW KEEPING COOL AND DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. WITH THAT SAID, BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE MAKING IT FEEL
MORE LIKE WINTER.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 49 56 32 52 / 90 30 0 0
CAMDEN AR 55 64 36 56 / 80 80 0 0
HARRISON AR 42 49 30 54 / 40 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 51 59 35 55 / 100 40 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 54 59 36 54 / 100 60 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 58 65 38 56 / 60 80 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 48 59 33 58 / 90 30 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 44 51 30 53 / 60 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 50 56 33 50 / 90 50 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 55 62 36 54 / 80 70 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 48 57 33 56 / 90 10 0 0
SEARCY AR 50 58 33 53 / 100 60 0 0
STUTTGART AR 55 60 36 52 / 90 80 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....73
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