962
FXUS64 KLZK 180714 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
114 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THRU THE AREA BECAME STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN AR THIS MORNING AND HAS STARTED TO DRIFT A BIT BACK TO THE
NORTH THRU THE DAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND OVERRUNING HAS CREATED
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF
THE STATE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WILL QUICKLY DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
THE BIG WEATHER DRIVER AT THE MOMENT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL RAPIDLY PUSH INTO THE
STATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
LIFT FROM THE FRONT AND THE APPROACHING FRONT, COMBINED WITH MODEST
UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY, WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TONIGHT ALONG WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. SPC HAS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK, AND THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE.
THE POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
STATE, BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER THRU THE DAY TOMORROW
UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
AREA AS A CUT OF LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE AND HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PRETTY
SETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN,
PROMOTING CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN NW
FLOW KEEPING COOL AND DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. WITH THAT SAID, BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE MAKING IT FEEL
MORE LIKE WINTER.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
MIXED BATCH OF MVFR/IFR CONDNS WERE NOTED AROUND THE FA, W/ IFR OR
LESS VISBYS NOTED ACRS CNTRL AR, INVOF AN ANTECEDENT STATIONARY
FRNT, NOW ADVANCING NWRD AS A WRMFRNT. ADDITIONALLY, A BROKEN
LINE OF TSRA WAS MOVING EWRD INTO WRN AND N/WRN AR, AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING CDFRNT. THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PD, THIS
LINE OF TSRA WL CONT TO MOVE EWRD, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING S/EWRD AS
THE TRAILING CDFRNT ACCELERATES THRU THE REGION LATER THIS MRNG.
EXPECT IFR CONDNS TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE FA THRU THE LATER
MRNG HRS ON WED, W/ VISBYS IMPROVING IN THE WAKE OF THE CDFRNT,
AND CIGS IMPROVING TO MVFR LVLS AT MOST AREA TERMINALS BY THIS AFTN.
WINDS WL STAY VARIABLE, AND GUSTY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT, BCMG NRLY
BY WED AFTN BEHIND THE CDFRNT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 56 32 52 32 / 30 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 64 36 56 35 / 80 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 49 30 54 25 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 59 35 55 35 / 40 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 59 36 54 36 / 60 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 65 38 56 38 / 80 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 59 33 58 33 / 30 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 51 30 53 27 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 56 33 50 32 / 50 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 62 36 54 35 / 70 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 57 33 56 32 / 10 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 58 33 53 33 / 60 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 60 36 52 35 / 80 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARZ031>033-
039-042>046-052>057-062>064-066-067-122-137-138-140-141-222-237-
238-240-241-340-341.
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...72
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