416
FXUS64 KLZK 180931
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
331 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
RECENT COMPOSITE RADAR IMGRY DEPICTED A BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS
ORIENTED FM S/W TO N/E MOVING EWRD ACRS THE FA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
NOTED AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING CDFRNT, ASCTD W/ PASSING SFC CYCLONIC
FLOW. CURRENTLY, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MVG SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
FCST, AND AT THE CURRENT RATE, WL LKLY CLEAR THE FA TO THE S/E B/W
18/14Z TO 18/15Z.
AS THIS LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE THRU THE FA, A VERY LOW-END THREAT
FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WL PREVAIL, W/ HAIL AND SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS, THOUGH THE ELEVATED STATURE OF
MOST OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT
NEGLIGIBLE THRU THE LATER MRNG HRS AS THE LINE MOVES THRU.
GUSTY NRLY WINDS WL SPREAD ACRS THE FA THRU THE DAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRNT PUSHES THRU. PRECIP COVG WL QUICKLY TAPER OFF
TOWARDS THE S/E, AS DRIER AIR IS USHERED IN. THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM PD, DRY AND SETTLED CONDNS WL PREVAIL AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SRN CNTRL US, AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDNS
ENSUE... E.G., DAILY HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING TO THE MID 30S ACRS CNTRL AND SRN AR, AND READINGS DIPPING
INTO THE 20S ACRS NRN AR, PARTICULARLY ON THURS NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RIGHT OUT
OF CANADA, AND A COLD FRONT RIDING THE FLOW INTO ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY.
THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LARGE AREA OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE,
A VERY DRY AIR MASS, AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. READINGS WILL NOT BE EXTREME, WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COLD
AIR REMAINING TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE STATE.
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE WILL BE AN ABRUPT PATTERN
CHANGE. THE BIG HIGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST, AND A ZONAL FLOW WILL
SET UP. THE FLOW WILL COME FROM THE PACIFIC INSTEAD OF CANADA, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.
AS THE ENVIRONMENT WARMS UP, A SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE ROCKIES
INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE DAY BEFORE CHRISTMAS, AND BRING GOOD
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
JUST BEYOND THE PERIOD, IT APPEARS THAT RAIN WILL END ACROSS THE
WESTERN COUNTIES ON CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH SMALL CHANCES OF LINGERING
SHOWERS FARTHER EAST. OUR MILD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE, AND IT MAY
PROVE TO BE ACTIVE/STORMY TO END THE MONTH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
MIXED BATCH OF MVFR/IFR CONDNS WERE NOTED AROUND THE FA, W/ IFR OR
LESS VISBYS NOTED ACRS CNTRL AR, INVOF AN ANTECEDENT STATIONARY
FRNT, NOW ADVANCING NWRD AS A WRMFRNT. ADDITIONALLY, A BROKEN
LINE OF TSRA WAS MOVING EWRD INTO WRN AND N/WRN AR, AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING CDFRNT. THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PD, THIS
LINE OF TSRA WL CONT TO MOVE EWRD, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING S/EWRD AS
THE TRAILING CDFRNT ACCELERATES THRU THE REGION LATER THIS MRNG.
EXPECT IFR CONDNS TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE FA THRU THE LATER
MRNG HRS ON WED, W/ VISBYS IMPROVING IN THE WAKE OF THE CDFRNT,
AND CIGS IMPROVING TO MVFR LVLS AT MOST AREA TERMINALS BY THIS AFTN.
WINDS WL STAY VARIABLE, AND GUSTY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT, BCMG NRLY
BY WED AFTN BEHIND THE CDFRNT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 57 32 53 33 / 20 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 64 35 57 35 / 90 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 52 30 54 26 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 61 35 55 36 / 40 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 60 35 54 36 / 60 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 65 37 56 38 / 100 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 61 33 58 33 / 20 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 52 30 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 58 33 49 33 / 50 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 64 35 53 36 / 90 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 58 33 56 33 / 10 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 59 33 52 33 / 50 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 62 35 50 37 / 90 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARZ031>033-
039-042>046-052>057-062>064-066-067-122-137-138-140-141-222-237-
238-240-241-340-341.
SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...72
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