621
FXUS64 KLZK 182341
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
541 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT HAS NOW
MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE STATE BRINGING CALM AND DRIER CONDITIONS
TO STATE. SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD STICK AROUND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BRINGING WITH IT COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE LONG TERM.
THE MAIN STORY WITHIN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS AND A TROUGH TO OUR EAST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE CENTERED NORTH OF MINNESOTA...THIS WILL RESULT IN NW FLOW ALOFT
AND NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD DRY AIR
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECAST.
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN AND
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. DO THINK NBM TIMING WITH THIS FRONT IS A LITTLE FAST, SO
THEREFORE EXPECT THE EXACT ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. MODELS STRONGLY
DISAGREE WHEN THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL CLEAR THE STATE, AND
THUS THE TIMING OF THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION DISAGREES QUITE A
BIT ON WHETHER WE WILL SEE A DRY CHRISTMAS DAY OR NOT. BUT ONE THING
FOR CERTAIN IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL LIQUID.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
IMPROVING FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE STATE. SHRA ARE EXPECTED
TO COME TO AN END BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN AR.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH SOME
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTH EAST AND COULD BE GUSTY
AT TIMES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER ARKANSAS. LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED CENTRAL AND SOUTH IN THE MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS BEFORE CLEARING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 33 51 33 42 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 36 57 37 53 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 31 54 27 38 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 35 56 37 48 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 37 54 38 47 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 38 56 39 52 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 34 58 34 48 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 31 54 28 39 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 33 49 33 42 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 36 54 37 49 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 33 56 34 47 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 34 51 34 45 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 35 51 37 46 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...51
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