607
FXUS64 KLZK 190517 CCA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1115 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT HAS NOW
MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE STATE BRINGING CALM AND DRIER CONDITIONS
TO STATE. SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD STICK AROUND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BRINGING WITH IT COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE LONG TERM.
THE MAIN STORY WITHIN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS AND A TROUGH TO OUR EAST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE CENTERED NORTH OF MINNESOTA...THIS WILL RESULT IN NW FLOW ALOFT
AND NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD DRY AIR
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECAST.
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN AND
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. DO THINK NBM TIMING WITH THIS FRONT IS A LITTLE FAST, SO
THEREFORE EXPECT THE EXACT ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. MODELS STRONGLY
DISAGREE WHEN THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL CLEAR THE STATE, AND
THUS THE TIMING OF THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION DISAGREES QUITE A
BIT ON WHETHER WE WILL SEE A DRY CHRISTMAS DAY OR NOT. BUT ONE THING
FOR CERTAIN IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL LIQUID.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME LOWER CIGS ARE STILL
LINGERING OVER S-CNTRL AR INTO SW AR AND SOME PATCHY FG IS
POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK OVER CNTRL TERMINALS. ON THURS, VFR CONDS
WILL RETURN AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW AT AROUND 10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 57 33 51 33 / 20 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 64 36 57 37 / 90 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 52 31 54 27 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 61 35 56 37 / 40 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 60 37 54 38 / 60 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 65 38 56 39 / 100 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 61 34 58 34 / 20 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 52 31 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 58 33 49 33 / 50 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 64 36 54 37 / 90 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 58 33 56 34 / 10 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 59 34 51 34 / 50 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 62 35 51 37 / 90 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...70
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