706
FXUS64 KLZK 190936
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
336 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
OTHER THAN SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS, CONDITIONS ARE MUCH QUIETER
ACROSS AR COMPARED TO JUST 24 HOURS AGO. TEMPERATURES WERE HOVERING
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK OVER NRN AR, TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. PATCHY FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS
POSSIBLE NEAR AND AROUND DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF
N-CNTRL AR, WITH VISIBILITIES QUICKLY IMPROVING AFTER SUNRISE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SLIDE S AND E OF THE STATE TODAY WITH
S/SW SURFACE WINDS RETURNING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ACROSS
THE STATE SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES.
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PIVOT ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LACK MOISTURE, THEREFORE LITTLE EVIDENCE OF A
PASSING FRONT SHOULD BE VISIBLE BUT WILL BE FELT DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO WARM UP THANKS TO COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND AS A RESULT, HIGHS SHOULD ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S N, TO
MID 40S C, TO NEAR 50 DEGREES OVER S AR. N AND NW WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY, RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE DAY, CREATING PRETTY
CHILLY APPARENT TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY RANGE FROM THE
MID 10S N, TO UPPER 20S C, TO MID 30S OVER S AR DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WARMING UP ABOUT 15 DEGREES BY AFTERNOON AT EACH OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S STATEWIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN N
OF AR. COLD AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RIGHT OUT
OF CANADA, AND A LARGE AREA OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDING THE FLOW
TOWARD ARKANSAS. THE HIGH WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. READINGS WILL NOT BE EXTREME,
WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR REMAINING TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE
STATE.
THE PATTERN WILL ABRUPTLY CHANGE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
BIG HIGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST, AND A ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP. THE
FLOW WILL COME FROM THE PACIFIC INSTEAD OF CANADA, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE QUICKLY TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.
AS THE ENVIRONMENT WARMS UP, A SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE ROCKIES
INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE DAY BEFORE CHRISTMAS, AND BRING GOOD
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
ON THE HEELS OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE A DEEP TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH AN ACTIVE/STORMY PERIOD
JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE LONG TERM. EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST
THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOCALLY, BUT WE WILL KEEP MONITORING INCOMING DATA/TRENDS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME LOWER CIGS ARE STILL
LINGERING OVER S-CNTRL AR INTO SW AR AND SOME PATCHY FG IS
POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK OVER CNTRL TERMINALS. ON THURS, VFR CONDS
WILL RETURN AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW AT AROUND 10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 53 31 43 25 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 58 37 52 26 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 54 26 38 22 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 55 35 47 26 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 55 36 46 28 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 57 40 50 28 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 57 32 48 25 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 54 27 39 23 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 50 32 41 25 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 55 37 47 26 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 57 32 47 26 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 53 32 44 26 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 52 37 45 27 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...70
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