517
FXUS64 KLZK 192323
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
523 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING DOWN INTO ARKANSAS TONIGHT.
CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT, ALONG WITH GUSTY N/NW WINDS. THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE, AND IN FACT POPS ARE ZERO THRU THE SHORT TERM FORECAT
PERIOD.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30'S ACROSS THE NORTH,
AND 40'S WILL BE COMMON ALMOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.
LOW TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE CHILLY, WITH LOWS
IN THE 20'S ACROSS THE AREA, AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OUTLYING AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL SEE THE MERCURY DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
OVER THE WEEKEND, SFC RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
MIGRATE SEWRD TO NEW ENGLAND WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING LOCALLY AS
A RESULT. THIS WILL MARK THE TRANSITION FROM MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER
TO A NOTABLY MILDER-THAN-AVERAGE PATTERN WITH A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN
AND STORMS AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY.
BY MON MORNING, THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE WILL BE DRAPED ALONG
THE E COAST AS A COMPACT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
REFLECTION OVER THE GREAT LAKES KICKS EWRD. ON ITS HEELS WILL BE A
HIGH-AMPLITUDE, NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THRU THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THIS WILL DRAW A TONGUE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR
NWRD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS STATES.
RELATIVELY NEBULOUS SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE FAVORED INVOF THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES ALONG THE NRN TERMINUS OF THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR.
PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE DEWPOINT TEMPS INTO THE
40S/50S F THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND, AS SYNOPTIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH, RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE NW-TO-SE MON AFTERNOON THRU MON NIGHT WITH
RAIN AND SOME THUNDER LIKELY FOR MOST THRU AT LEAST VERY EARLY
CHRISTMAS MORNING.
THANKFULLY, INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LOW WITH LITTLE SEVERE THREAT
TO CONTEND WITH, ALTHOUGH MAX PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.3 INCHES (AROUND
THE 90TH PERCENTILE PER NAEFS CLIMO) WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME FLOOD THREAT WITH
A WORSENING OF, OR AT LEAST PROLONGMENT OF, ONGOING RIVERINE
FLOODING.
THIS BATCH OF RAIN WILL TRY EXITING TO THE E LATER WED AS THE LEAD
UPPER TROUGH EJECTS, ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND
WITH AT LEAST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S F AND LOWS
IN THE 40S/50S F.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY WITH ONLY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW TO MARK ITS PASSAGE. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY ALONG AND AFTER THE FROPA BUT START TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE GRADIENT
SLACKENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 31 41 25 43 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 37 50 27 48 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 25 37 22 44 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 35 46 26 47 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 36 46 28 45 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 41 50 28 47 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 32 46 25 49 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 27 39 23 43 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 31 41 26 42 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 37 46 27 45 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 32 46 26 47 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 32 43 26 44 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 36 44 27 44 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....69
AVIATION...56
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