013
FXUS64 KLZK 201734
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1134 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS AR THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND TEMPERATURES WERE
HOLDING NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. LOOKING FROM A MORE
REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE, A COLD FRONT WAS QUICKLY TRANSLATING SEWRD
ACROSS SRN MO/NRN OK AND HAD JUST ENTERED FAR NWRN AR. OTHER THAN
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW, NO PRECIPITATION OR CLOUD COVER WAS
DEPICTED ON REGIONAL RADARS AND OR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL BE FELT TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, HOWEVER NO PRECIPITATION OR CLOUD COVER IS THE IN
THE FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT
OF THE NW, RANGING FROM 15-25 KTS, PRODUCING COLD APPARENT
TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM MID 10S TO MID 20S N, TO UPPER 20S TO MID 30S CNTRL,
TO MID 30S TO MID 40S OVER SRN AR. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY
NOT MOVE MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT VALUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER NRN AR SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 30S, MID 40S OVER MOST OF CNTRL AR, TO THE MID 40S TO NEAR
50 DEGREES OVER SRN AR.
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ONCE WINDS GO LIGHT/VARIABLE AND OR CALM. LOWS SHOULD FALL
WELL INTO THE 20S STATEWIDE.
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY THANKS TO CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH NE SURFACE WINDS BENEATH NW
UPPER FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 40S. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE 20S
STATEWIDE. COLD CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RIGHT OUT
OF CANADA, AND A LARGE AREA OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDING THE FLOW
FROM MINNESOTA TO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY/SUNDAY. WHILE THE BRUNT OF
THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL BE TO OUR NORTH/EAST,
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST LOCALLY.
THE PATTERN WILL ABRUPTLY CHANGE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
BIG HIGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST, AND A ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP. THE
FLOW WILL COME FROM THE PACIFIC INSTEAD OF CANADA, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE QUICKLY TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.
AS THE ENVIRONMENT WARMS UP, A SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE ROCKIES
INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE DAY BEFORE CHRISTMAS, AND BRING GOOD
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON CHRISTMAS DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND SHOWERS SHOULD TEMPORARILY END. YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY, WITH HIT
AND MISS SHOWERS BACK IN THE FORECAST.
JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD, AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
CONTINUE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A STORMY SCENARIO/SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE
AT THIS POINT, BUT IT IS WORTH MONITORING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ARKANSAS FOR THE 24 HOURS OF
THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. CHANGE GROUPS ARE IN THERE PRIMARILY TO REFLECT
CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET AS THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE REGION. AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST TOMORROW, WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY.
CAVANAUGH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 25 42 26 47 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 26 49 27 54 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 22 43 26 49 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 26 47 27 51 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 27 45 29 50 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 29 47 29 53 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 25 49 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 23 42 26 48 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 26 42 26 45 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 26 45 27 51 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 26 47 27 51 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 25 43 26 48 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 27 44 28 49 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...66
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